Global demand for oil and gas could grow until 2050, IEA says

Global demand for oil and gas could continue to grow for another 25 years. If nothing changes, the world may fail to meet its climate goals. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said this today in its outlook for global energy. This marks a significant departure from its previous forecasts, which anticipated a rapid shift to cleaner fuels.

Until this year, all IEA models assumed that fossil fuel consumption would peak this decade. This assumption was sharply criticised by the oil and gas industry as well as the White House.

In its latest report, the IEA now says that if the world continues on its current course, demand for oil and gas will keep growing and there will be no significant decline in carbon dioxide emissions.

The report presents a scenario that takes into account changes in individual countries' positions on climate goals. It also considers growing demand for secure and affordable energy and the slowdown in electric vehicle sales growth.

The agency forecast that, under current policies, oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century. That is 13 percent higher than consumption in 2024.

According to the IEA, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market will grow from around 560 billion cubic metres in 2024 to 880 billion cubic metres in 2035 and 1,020 billion cubic metres in 2050. This will be driven by rising demand in the power sector, fuelled by the growth of data centres and artificial intelligence (AI).

The report also includes a net-zero emissions scenario, which describes a pathway to reducing global energy-related emissions to zero by 2050. At the 2015 Paris climate talks, more than 190 countries pledged to try to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, the IEA shows that warming exceeds 1.5°C in almost all scenarios, and declines only under the net-zero emissions scenario. This would be achieved if technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere were deployed.