Coal consumption set to hit another record this year, partly thanks to Trump, IEA predicts

Coal consumption will hit another record this year, rising by 0.5 percent from last year to 8.85 billion tonnes. This is partly due to the policies of US President Donald Trump’s administration. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said today in its outlook on coal demand. However, as alternative sources of electricity grow, coal consumption will eventually begin to decline.

Coal consumption in the United States has fallen in recent years, but is expected to rise by eight percent this year. The IEA attributes this to higher natural gas prices and the slower retirement of coal-fired power plants, driven by the US government.

In the European Union, coal demand has fallen much less this year than in the previous two years. Wind and hydropower plants generated less electricity in the first half of the year, leading to greater reliance on coal. India, which usually contributes to rising global coal demand, is likely to have generated less electricity from coal this year. An early and intense monsoon season led to lower electricity demand and increased hydropower generation.

China remains the driving force in the market. It is the world’s largest coal consumer and a leader in wind and solar power, accounting for 56 percent of global demand. Domestic consumption remained stable in 2025 compared with 2024.

According to the European Union’s Copernicus climate service, 2025 is shaping up to be the second-hottest year on record, on a par with 2023 and behind 2024. Global coal demand is stagnating, however, meaning it is tending to stabilise. The IEA predicts that it will decline slightly by 2030, returning to 2023 levels, as other sources of electricity become increasingly competitive.