North America drives growth in global LNG production, Europe set for record imports

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published a report on natural gas market developments in the first quarter of 2026. The document looks back at the past year while also offering key forecasts for the period ahead. The IEA expects record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into Europe, alongside a significant increase in global supply, driven mainly by North America.

According to the IEA, 2025 was primarily a year of transition for global natural gas markets. While market conditions remained tight in the first half of the year, the situation began to ease gradually from July thanks to rapidly growing LNG production. This resulted in a significant easing of pressure on global gas prices, especially in the second half of the year.

LNG is playing an increasingly crucial role. Global LNG production rose by almost 7% in 2025 (roughly 38 billion cubic metres), with around three-quarters of this growth occurring in the second half of the year. North America was the key driver of the expansion, with the new Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana accounting for more than 60% of the total increase in supply during the year.

Despite higher supply, the start of 2025 was not easy. Tight supply conditions and increased storage injections in the European Union kept European and Asian LNG prices high. The IEA says benchmarks in both Europe and Asia were up by tens of percent year on year in the first half of the year. In the second half, however, prices declined, confirming how quickly supply growth can change market sentiment.

Demand growth was rather weak in 2025. According to preliminary data, global gas consumption rose by less than 1%, mainly due to weaker industrial activity and relatively high prices in the first half of the year. A recovery came mainly in Europe and North America: in Europe, higher demand was supported by lower wind and hydropower generation, while a colder winter helped in North America.

The outlook for 2026 is more optimistic. The IEA expects global LNG supply to grow at its fastest rate since 2019, with production increasing by more than 7% (over 40 billion cubic metres). Around 85% of this increase is again expected to come from the Americas, primarily the United States, Canada and Mexico.

The report also notes that, despite market easing, risks from geopolitical tensions and weather fluctuations remain, and could continue to trigger significant price volatility.