Experts: Czech Republic will have enough electricity after Chvaletice and Počerady plants close

According to an analysis by the Facts about Climate initiative, the Czech Republic will have enough electricity even after the closure of the Chvaletice and Počerady coal-fired power plants. The impact on electricity prices should be very limited. Subsidising the plants' continued operation would cost billions of crowns a year and would not be worthwhile for the state. An analysis by transmission system operator ČEPS will be crucial for the plants' future; it should be completed by 27 January.

Sev.en Group, owned by businessman Pavel Tykač, announced at the end of November that it would shut down the Počerady and Chvaletice coal-fired power plants, as well as the power and heat plant in Kladno, in December 2026, or by March 2027 at the latest. It cited the threat of sustained losses due to the outlook for electricity market prices and emissions allowance prices. According to Sev.en Group's website, the plants set to cease operation have nearly 2400 megawatts (MW) of installed capacity, while the Kladno facility also has thermal capacity of more than 950 MW.

The Facts about Climate analysis primarily focused on the impact of shutting down the Počerady and Chvaletice plants on electricity generation in the Czech Republic and on prices. It did not include the impact of closing the Kladno power and heat plant.

"Shutting down the Počerady and Chvaletice power plants does not threaten the ability to meet Czech electricity demand. In all modelled scenarios, the LOLE (loss of load expectation) indicator is zero – meaning there are no hours in which demand could not be met," the initiative summarised the study's findings.

According to the initiative, this also applies to unfavourable climate years and periods of so-called dark doldrums, when output from solar and wind power plants is low. "In these situations, the Czech Republic is able to cover most of its consumption from domestic sources and imports only a small amount of electricity from abroad," the study's authors said.

According to the study, subsidising the continued operation of the Chvaletice and Počerady plants would not be worthwhile for the state. "The modelling shows that shutting down the Počerady and Chvaletice plants would increase the average wholesale electricity price only slightly – by no more than two percent. Conversely, subsidising their operation would represent a long-term burden of several billion crowns a year, which would probably outweigh the benefit for consumers of slightly cheaper wholesale electricity," the initiative said.

ČEPS launched an analysis of the impacts of a potential closure of the Chvaletice, Počerady and Kladno coal-fired power plants at the end of November. It should be completed within 60 days, by 27 January. The system operator is primarily assessing the security of future electricity supplies.

"We are currently preparing the analysis and, once it is completed, we will submit it within the legally stipulated deadline to the Energy Regulatory Office (ERÚ), the relevant generators and the Ministry of Industry and Trade," ČEPS spokesman Lukáš Hrabal told ČTK.

However, ČEPS will not have the final say. The conditions for any continued operation will be addressed by the ERÚ with the generator. If the facilities were needed, the authority could, for example, set compensation for the current operator's continued loss-making operation, or order someone else to continue operating them at a specified price.