Czech electricity net exports continue to fall, likely down by a third again this year

The Czech Republic is recording a continued decline in its power system balance, meaning the domestic power sector is becoming less surplus-generating. The system surplus already fell by nearly a third in 2023, and data for 2024 point to a similar decline this year. By the end of September this year, the balance stood at 4.2 TWh, compared with 6.1 TWh in the same period of 2023, again a difference of roughly one third.

The Czech Republic’s role as one of the largest electricity exporters in the European Union has weakened slightly over the past two years. While net electricity exports from the Czech Republic were approximately 13.5 TWh in 2022, they amounted to only 9 TWh last year.

This represents a year-on-year decline of 32%, a significant difference compared with previous years. Czech electricity exports fell by 7.6 TWh year on year, equivalent to a 25.1% decrease, while imports fell by 3.3 TWh, or 19.5%.

Despite this, the Czech Republic retained its position as the fourth-largest electricity exporter in the European Union in 2023. As expected, France topped this ranking last year, returning to the leading position after the energy crisis, during which it was even a net electricity importer, by exporting approximately 50 TWh of electricity.

The trend continues in 2024

The decline in the balance is continuing this year. As shown in the chart below, the system surplus stood at approximately 4.2 TWh at the end of September. At the same point last year, it was approximately 6.1 TWh, representing a decline of roughly one third.

One of the main factors behind the decline in exports is lower electricity generation in 2024. By the end of September, Czech power plants had generated a total of 50 TWh, down 5% from 52.3 TWh in the same period of 2023. This decline was driven primarily by lower output from coal-fired power plants, which traditionally account for a large share of Czech generation and still provide roughly one third of domestic electricity production.

The largest decline was recorded at the coal-fired power plant in Počerady, which supplied only 2.2 TWh of electricity to the grid this year. This represents the plant’s lowest output since at least 2015, when its generation exceeded 3 TWh by the same date.

A similar decline occurred at other major coal-fired power plants, including Ledvice, Chvaletice and the Dětmarovice plant, operated by semi-state-owned ČEZ. All of these plants recorded lower output compared with last year, contributing to the overall reduction in electricity generation in the country.

The Czech Republic has traditionally been one of the main electricity exporters in the European Union, but current statistics point to a change in this dynamic. Although the Czech Republic was still the EU’s fourth-largest electricity exporter in 2023, its export balance is declining.

This change is partly the result of growing pressure to decarbonise the power sector and reduce reliance on coal-fired power plants. The Czech power sector, which is heavily dependent on coal-fired sources, is therefore losing a significant resource as a result of decarbonisation. According to preliminary statistics, coal’s share of electricity generation stands at around 31% this year, while pressure to phase out coal-fired power plants is likely to intensify, whether for economic or political and environmental reasons.