ICIS: Czechia to become net electricity importer within two years

The Czech Republic has traditionally exported a significant share of its electricity generation to neighbouring countries. However, according to the outlook of ICIS, this situation is set to change soon. Tightening emissions limits will lead to the closure of domestic coal-fired plants, which is expected to turn export-oriented Czechia into an electricity importer within two years. According to analysts, the opposite situation is expected in Slovakia.

According to ICIS analysts' models, which have also covered the Czech and Slovak markets since June this year, hard coal and lignite units with a total installed capacity of 3.6 GW are expected to be shut down in Czechia in 2021. A further 1.5 GW of capacity is expected to close in 2022, followed by another 1 GW in 2023 and 2024. However, possible exemptions for which plant operators can apply may still come into play.

Under the assumed plant closures, the generation shortfall is expected to be met mainly by electricity imports from abroad, making Czechia a net electricity importer as early as 2021. Electricity exports to Slovakia are expected to see a significant year-on-year decline, falling by 2 TWh annually in both 2020 and 2021. Similarly, exports to both Germany and Austria are expected to fall year-on-year by 2.6 TWh in 2021.

While Czechia exported between 11 and 17 TWh of electricity annually over the past decade, it is expected to import between 5 and 10 TWh per year between 2022 and 2030.

New Mochovce units to free Slovakia from import dependence

The opposite scenario to that expected by ICIS on the Czech side of the border is set to unfold in neighbouring Slovakia. Slovakia has covered around 10% of its electricity consumption through imports in recent years, but the commissioning of new nuclear units at the Mochovce power plant will instead enable the country to export electricity.

According to the current timetable, the third and fourth units of the Mochovce nuclear power plant are expected to come online in 2020 and 2021, respectively, and together produce approximately 7.4 TWh annually. With the new units, nuclear power plants are expected to cover more than 70% of Slovakia's electricity consumption.