New goals and old problems: What will COP29 in Baku bring?

A year has passed, and once again the time has come when global climate policy moves into the spotlight. Yesterday, the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference began (hereafter COP29). This year, it is being hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the smell of oil is impossible to miss on a walk through the city. As The Guardian reported, the prospects for a good outcome appear bleak.

COP29 will run from yesterday, 11 November, until 22 November. During this period, more than a hundred leading figures from countries and governments around the world will gather in Baku. The world’s attention will once again be focused intensely on the crucial issue of the climate crisis and the measures needed to address it. As last year, however, the conference is taking place amid geopolitical tensions.

This year’s conference is built on two strong pillars: raising ambition and enabling action. It is this increased ambition that will determine “whether the planet burns so fossil fuel producers can continue to make money, or whether we take a different path.” The second pillar points to the vital role of finance, a key tool for turning ambition into action and reducing emissions, adapting to climate change, and addressing loss and damage.

The central goal remains limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as set out at the 2015 Paris conference. But this goal is slipping further out of reach, the Azerbaijani presidency said, and therefore “we need to start investing today to save tomorrow.” The conference framework also highlights the need to take all perspectives into account in order to achieve inclusive outcomes based on shared solutions.

COP29, however, is already opening with several leaders of the world’s largest industrial economies absent. Those not attending include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Ed Miliband will therefore embody Europe’s share of the responsibility. He promised that the United Kingdom would lead efforts at COP 29 to secure a global agreement. The expected absence of newly elected US President Donald Trump is a story in itself.

What can be expected from COP 29?

The United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) has summarized five key outcomes that the Azerbaijani presidency could deliver.

A new global climate finance goal

This year’s summit will be a key venue for negotiating a new global climate finance goal for the period after 2025. Countries have previously pledged to provide $100 billion annually for climate action, but this is not enough to meet growing needs.

A new goal is therefore expected, one that will not only increase the amount of funding but also improve its availability to tackle the climate crisis. A key issue will be engaging the private sector and fairly distributing financial obligations among countries.

Greater ambition and setting expectations for the next cycle of national climate plans

2025 will be a crucial year for the climate agenda, as countries will have to submit new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with more ambitious climate commitments. COP29 will therefore be a critical moment for setting expectations on emissions reductions and the transition to renewable energy.

Building on the goals set at the previous summit, countries should, for example, at least triple installed renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Strengthening loss and damage funds with tangible impact

This year, the Loss and Damage Fund) has made progress on several important steps, including selecting the Philippines as its host country and establishing cooperation with the World Bank. COP29 is expected to confirm and further strengthen these steps so the fund can effectively help countries affected by climate disasters.

The Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM), which focuses on the impacts of climate change that cannot be adapted to, will also be reviewed, along with its integration with new funds and the Santiago Network, which provides technical assistance to vulnerable countries.

Supporting adaptation by moving from planning to implementation

Adaptation will be one of the main themes of this year’s COP. Countries have already been urged to formulate their national adaptation plans (NAPs) by 2025 and demonstrate progress in implementing them by 2030.

COP29 will discuss concrete steps to facilitate the transition from planning to the implementation of adaptation measures. The summit could also attract further financial commitments to support adaptation, such as contributions to the Adaptation Fund.

Linking the climate and nature crises, land and cities

2024 has been dubbed the “year of the triple COP”, as three key international environmental conferences are taking place. Alongside COP29 in Baku, COP16 on biodiversity is being held in Cali and COP16 on desertification in Riyadh.

These connections create an opportunity to better align efforts on climate change, nature conservation and land degradation. COP29 outcomes should therefore support integrated solutions for climate resilience, sustainable development and safeguarding the health of the planet.