Analysis: Europe could be almost independent of green hydrogen imports in the future

Expected demand for green hydrogen in Europe could be largely met by domestic production. This is according to an analysis by researchers at the German Fraunhofer CINES institute, who assessed the outlook for 2030 and 2050 under different demand scenarios.

According to the published findings, demand for green hydrogen could reach around 700 TWh in 2050 under the low-demand scenario and as much as 2 800 TWh under the high-demand scenario. For comparison, EU natural gas consumption in 2023 was just over 3 500 TWh.

The researchers expect the main consumers of green hydrogen to be industrial processes, power plants, facilities supplying heat to district heating networks, and intra-European aviation. Northwestern Europe is expected to be the main centre of demand geographically.

The study's findings also show that a large share of expected demand for green hydrogen could be met by domestic production. Even in the high-demand scenario, imports account for only 10 % of expected demand.

"Assuming the energy system develops at an economically optimal pace, green hydrogen produced in Europe will remain more than competitive with imports," said study leader Tobias Fleiter, adding that the cost of transporting hydrogen from North Africa or the Middle East offsets the difference between production costs in those regions and in Europe.

Researchers at Fraunhofer CINES stressed the need for rapid development of hydrogen infrastructure, including storage facilities to balance seasonal mismatches between green hydrogen production and demand for the fuel. By 2050, Europe may need total hydrogen storage capacity of up to 300 TWh.

"If all existing natural gas storage facilities were used to store hydrogen in the future, they would have a capacity of 225 TWh. We can therefore certainly count on converting our natural gas storage facilities as a key part of our transformation strategies," Tobias Fleiter added.