EU unlikely to have enough LNG to replenish gas stocks before winter

European natural gas storage facilities finally began filling at the start of April. However, a weak post-winter starting position and the current situation on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market will, according to analysts at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, result in storage reaching only 70% fullness ahead of the coming winter. To achieve the same storage level as last year, LNG imports between May and October would have to amount to at least 70 bcm (roughly 750 TWh).

Europe entered the main part of the injection season with relatively low natural gas inventories. According to data available on Energostat, European storage facilities were less than 30 % full at the beginning of April. They are currently just under 45 % full, the third-lowest level for this period in the past 10 years.

According to an analysis by researchers at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, securing a sufficient volume of LNG will be key to replenishing EU gas stocks. To reach a storage level of around 80 % by 1 November, total LNG imports into the EU between May and October would have to be roughly 70 bcm (approximately 750TWh), as they were last year. However, this will most likely be very difficult in the context of the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

"Lower demand for LNG in Asian markets may partly ease pressure on the market, but Europe will nevertheless probably face significantly lower LNG imports than in 2025. Our base case shows storage facilities will be only 70 % full by 1 November," the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies said.

The need to secure sufficient LNG during this year's injection season was also highlighted in early April by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). The association noted that LNG imports and withdrawals from gas storage during the winter months complement each other and cannot be substituted for one another.

"LNG ensures access to sufficient gas volumes and diversification of sources, while storage provides short-term flexibility, peak supplies and protection against late-winter shocks. Weakening either of these pillars would directly reduce the resilience of the entire system," the association said.

EU rules in force until the end of last year required individual member states to fill storage facilities to at least 90 % by 1 November. Since this year, relaxed rules have applied, under which the 90% filling level must be reached at any time between 1 October and 1 December. In "difficult conditions", member states are also allowed to deviate from the target by 10 percentage points. A further reduction of the target by 5 percentage points is also possible if defined conditions are met.

"If we apply this to the EU as a whole, we therefore have targets of 90 %, 80 % or 75 % of total capacity. Given the EU-27's total storage capacity of 106.8 bcm (1 142 TWh), these targets amount to 96.1 bcm (90 %), 85.4 bcm (80 %) and 80.1 bcm (75 %)," the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies added.