Weak demand could lead to a gas surplus in Europe in the coming years

Europe’s natural gas market could face a significant supply glut in the coming years, driven by an expected increase in global production, falling demand and higher electricity generation from renewable sources. This is according to experts, cited by international news outlet Montel.

According to Jonathan Stern of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, one factor that could ease pressure on Europe’s natural gas market is the gradual increase in Russian natural gas supplies to China, which would free up some gas flows from Asia to Europe.

The increase is not expected to be limited to supplies from Russia. Global natural gas supply could grow by as much as 250 billion m3 by 2030, according to Gyorgy Domokos Vargha of Met International AG. By comparison, EU countries consumed a combined 412 billion m3 in 2021.

Risk of a "death spiral"

The German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), meanwhile, has highlighted falling natural gas consumption, which in Germany alone dropped by 13% between 2021 and 2022, to 543 TWh. As of 19 October 2023, natural gas consumption in Germany this year stood at 487 TWh.