Weather-adjusted gas consumption rose for the first time since the energy crisis

Gas consumption in the first quarter of this year fell again, by 4.3% compared with the first quarter of last year. However, gas consumption adjusted to the temperature conditions of the long-term temperature normal rose by 0.5%. Long-term statistics from the Energy Regulatory Office show that this was the first increase in gas consumption since the second quarter of 2021, when the first signs of the energy crisis emerged.

The Energy Regulatory Office (ERÚ) today published a report on the operation of the Czech gas system in the first quarter of this year. Natural gas consumption in the Czech Republic fell again, as it had in each of the preceding 10 quarters. Disregarding the effect of weather, the decline exceeded 4%.

However, after accounting for weather effects, the situation is different and gas consumption actually increased. This is because the average temperature for the entire first quarter of this year reached 4.3 °C, while the long-term temperature normal is 0.7 °C.

For the gas sector, which is significantly dependent on temperature due to high natural gas consumption in district heating, the average temperature is an important factor affecting gas consumption. In the first quarter in particular, the temperature difference was such that, despite the overall decline in gas consumption, consumption rose by 0.5% after deducting the effect of weather.

„High outdoor temperatures, which were 3.6 °C above the long-term temperature normal in the first quarter, played a key role in the further reduction in natural gas consumption. After adjusting for temperature effects, gas consumption in the first quarter instead rose by half a percent year on year,“ explains Stanislav Trávníček, Chair of the ERÚ Council.

However, if we compare gas consumption in the first quarter of 2021 with this year, the drop in natural gas consumption is stark. While it reached 30 TWh in the first quarter of this year, three years earlier, before the energy crisis, it stood at 37.7 TWh. In total, this represents a decline in consumption of more than 20%.

Gas consumption also fell at the Počerady power plant

Fluctuations in natural gas consumption in the Czech Republic are often driven by electricity generation at the combined-cycle gas plant in Počerady, operated by ČEZ. This single plant alone accounted for up to 7% of total gas consumption in 2019 and 2020, for example.

Gas consumption in the Czech Republic therefore also depends on how favourable conditions are at a given time for electricity generation at natural gas-fired power plants (the so-called clean spark spread, which is calculated, in simplified terms, as the difference between the electricity price and the proportional share of the natural gas price and emissions allowance price needed to generate electricity).

As shown in the chart below, the Počerady power plant was not responsible for the increase in consumption this time. Its gas consumption fell year on year, by as much as 25%.