IEA: Russian oil production falls, but exports return to almost pre-war levels

Russia’s oil production fell by 460.000 barrels per day year on year in April, to approximately 8.8 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said today. Production declined as Ukraine stepped up drone attacks on energy targets. Exports, however, are rising and approaching levels seen before the war in Ukraine began.

Oil exports increased by 250.000 barrels per day compared with March, reaching 4.9 million barrels per day. A drop in crude exports from the Middle East due to the conflict with Iran has attracted new buyers for Russian oil.

Since March, Ukraine has carried out a series of drone attacks on some of Russia’s largest oil ports and struck refineries in an effort to weaken the Russian war economy.

Russian oil production peaked in the late 1980s, but fell sharply after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 due to a lack of investment. It gradually recovered between 2000 and 2020, reaching a post-Soviet high shortly before the Covid-19 pandemic, in 2019.

The IEA also said that Russian oil product exports fell by 340.000 barrels per day in April compared with March, to 2.2 million barrels per day. This is the lowest level in the IEA’s recorded data.

“Russia’s total exports recovered in the second half of April, but did not return to the three-week average recorded before the attacks on Baltic ports—that is, the period between the start of the conflict in the Middle East and the problems in the Baltic Sea—when they peaked at 7.7 million barrels per day,” said the Paris-based IEA.

The agency noted that the export recovery was driven by increased shipments through the Baltic Sea, up 190.000 barrels per day compared with March, and the partial resumption of Druzhba pipeline deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia, which reached 60.000 barrels per day in the final week of April.

Since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, Russia has found new buyers for its Urals crude. Exports to Egypt, for example, averaged 200.000 barrels per day in April, peaking at 380.000 barrels per day in the week beginning April 20.

“With Urals crude exports at 1.9 million barrels per day, Russia is approaching pre-war levels. This suggests that loading volumes are close to capacity,” the IEA said. Oil prices, including those for Russian crude, have risen significantly since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East in late February.