Russian uranium as a geopolitical weapon: Europe must act or risk long-term dependence

The largest Western producers of enriched uranium are urging the European Union to gradually phase out imports from Russia. They warn that without a clear policy framework, Europe will remain dependent on Russian fuel for decades. Although companies are expanding production capacity, new sources will not be fully available until after 2032, the Financial Times reports.

Almost four years after the start of the war in Ukraine, Europe is still sourcing a significant share of its enriched uranium from Russia. According to available data, Russian fuel accounts for around 23 percent of European demand, equivalent to approximately 2.5 million SWU units. The low price of Russian supplies also remains a strong argument for nuclear power plant operators.

The CEOs of Urenco and Orano are therefore urging Brussels to set out a clear plan for gradually phasing out imports. They warn that Moscow is using its dominant position as a tool of geopolitical influence. According to the World Nuclear Association, the Russian state-owned company Rosatom controls around 44 percent of global uranium enrichment capacity.

“Russia is using enrichment as a geopolitical tool,” said Urenco chief Boris Schucht. He and his counterpart at Orano, Nicolas Maes, say Europe needs a clear political signal to make it possible to plan investment in new capacity.

In May 2024, President Joe Biden’s administration banned imports of Russian uranium, with exemptions in place until 2028. The aim was to reduce dependence on Russia following its aggression against Ukraine, as Moscow had been one of the key fuel suppliers for US nuclear power plants.

The European Union has yet to adopt a similar framework. The European Commission has prepared a proposal to restrict imports of Russian nuclear fuel and technology, but its approval is being held up by differing positions among member states.

A common strategy is also lacking because some countries have long-standing technological dependence on Russian fuel.

The Czech Republic is one of five EU countries, alongside Bulgaria, Finland, Hungary and Slovakia, that use VVER-type reactors and are therefore dependent on Russian nuclear fuel, as well as related services and spare parts.

Hungary is building new units designed by Rosatom and, together with Slovakia and the Czech Republic, has stockpiled Russian fuel assemblies for its Soviet-designed reactors. Sweden, by contrast, has already cut itself off from Russian supplies.

The European Commission is therefore proposing a ban on new contracts, restrictions on existing contracts through Euratom, and requiring member states to prepare national diversification plans to find solutions to the current situation.

Increasing production – a long road ahead

Urenco and Orano are meanwhile investing billions of euros in expanding their facilities. Orano is increasing the capacity of its Tricastin plant in France by around a third and is also building a new plant in the United States, which is scheduled to start operations in 2032. Urenco is expanding its facility in the Netherlands. According to the management of both companies, Russian supplies could be gradually replaced by drawing on existing stockpiles and planned investments.

Time, however, is a problem. Building new capacity takes years, and companies are hesitant to invest without long-term contracts. Having seen the previous “nuclear boom” quickly fade after the Fukushima accident in 2011, investors are cautious. Power plant operators are also speculating about whether relations with Russia might return to normal if a peace deal is reached with Ukraine.

Analysts warn that a rapid replacement of Russia is unrealistic. The enrichment market is concentrated, and opening new capacity or mines takes years. Some of Kazakhstan’s uranium production also goes to Russia and China.

Europe therefore faces a strategic decision. It can either accept higher short-term costs and create the conditions to strengthen domestic and Western capacity, or risk long-term dependence on a country that has already used energy as a tool of political pressure. For the nuclear sector, which is set to play a key role in decarbonising Europe’s energy system, this decision will have an impact for decades to come.