IEA: Data centres to double energy use by 2030 due to AI

By 2030, data centres will need twice as much energy as they do today. Total electricity demand from data centres will rise to 945 terawatt-hours (TWh), slightly more than Japan’s electricity consumption. Artificial intelligence (AI) will be the main driver of growth, with electricity demand from AI data centres expected to increase as much as fourfold by 2030. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said this today in its outlook.

According to the agency, the development of AI has driven up electricity demand, including in advanced economies where consumption has recently stagnated or, in some cases, even declined. In many places, data centres are becoming major electricity consumers. They are needed not only because of the growing use of AI, but also for fifth-generation mobile networks (5G) and cloud and streaming services.

The agency warns, however, that the growth of data centres will increase demand for electricity generated from gas and coal. Renewable energy capacity will continue to expand, particularly in Europe, but intermittent supplies from wind and solar will not be enough to meet rising demand from data centres. Power generation from sources such as gas will therefore often be best suited to match the demand profile of data centres. Given that some of the largest planned data centres will need as much energy as five million households, this will have enormous implications for greenhouse gas emissions.

By 2030, data centres in the United States will need more electricity than the combined output of all energy-intensive goods industries, including aluminium, steel, cement and chemicals. They will account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand there. Gas currently meets 40 percent of data centres’ electricity demand in the country.

The United States is currently the world’s largest data centre market, and gas is likely to supply electricity for most of the capacity being added by 2030. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump signed a series of executive orders aimed at expanding coal mining and use in the US.

China is the second-largest data centre market. Fossil fuels dominate its energy mix, raising concerns about emissions, the IEA says.

The report also stressed that considerable uncertainties remain, which could affect this outlook. They range from the macroeconomic outlook to how quickly AI is adopted.