IEA: Global coal consumption will hit a record this year and remain at similar levels in coming years

Global coal consumption will hit a record this year, reaching 8.77 billion tonnes. It is expected to remain at similar levels in the coming years, at least through 2027. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said this today in its outlook on the development of coal demand. High demand in Asia outweighs falling demand in the United States and Europe. Demand in China will be almost a third higher than in the rest of the world.

The expected surge in demand comes at a time when coal’s share of the global energy mix for power generation has fallen to 35 percent. This is its lowest level to date, largely due to strong growth in electricity supplied by renewable sources, which are helping meet rising energy demand in many countries.

India is also expected to consume more coal this year than the European Union and the United States combined. Coal demand in India is forecast to grow by more than five percent this year, to 1.3 billion tonnes. Previously, demand reached such a level only in China. China’s global lead in coal purchases and consumption is evident from its high import volumes. China is expected to import a record 500 million tonnes of coal this year, more than double the amount imported by the second-largest importer – India.

China is also expected to continue diversifying its energy sources in the coming years. It is accelerating the development of wind and solar power and making progress with nuclear power plant construction, which should reduce its reliance on coal. However, uncertainty still surrounds this development, the IEA noted.

Electricity consumption is expected to rise next year due to a combination of factors, including the electrification of services such as transport and heating, growing demand for cooling, and rising consumption in emerging sectors such as data centres.

„Weather-related factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends in coal demand,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security. „In the medium term, the pace of electricity demand growth will also be very important,“ he added.