The “Big, Beautiful Bill” and its harsh impact on US renewables

US President Donald Trump’s recently passed “Big, Beautiful Bill” will deal a severe blow to the development of “clean” energy technologies in the United States. For example, in response to the bill’s passage, BNEF researchers cut their forecast for newly commissioned wind and solar capacity and battery storage capacity between 2025 and 2030 by almost a quarter. According to BNEF, wind power development will be hit hardest.

In response to the passage of the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” BNEF researchers cut their forecast for new wind capacity in 2025–2030 by 50% compared with their forecast from the first half of this year. For solar power, BNEF expects a 23% reduction, and for energy storage systems, a 7% reduction. Overall, new capacity from these sources over the period is expected to reach 395 GW, 23% less than the previous forecast of 512 GW.

BNEF’s analysis indicates that project developers have a very short window in which to qualify for tax credits. In effect, BNEF says, construction needs to begin before the end of this year. Starting construction early could also protect developers from the impact of further planned measures intended to prevent solar and wind developers from accessing support.

“The rush to start construction, however, forces developers to take risks when signing supply contracts, securing grid connections, obtaining permits and allocating capital. Most mid-sized developers, with limited appetite for risk, may be unwilling to accept these risks given the potentially significant consequences,” BNEF said.

Despite the above, BNEF analysts expect the US market for “clean” energy technologies to remain strong in the long term, thanks to the economic advantages of these technologies compared with traditional forms of electricity generation, such as gas-fired and nuclear power plants.