EU will fall significantly short of wind power targets by 2030, IEA says

European Union (EU) countries will increase installed wind power capacity to 370 GW by 2030. This is a significant increase from the current roughly 225 GW, but still falls well short of the target the EU has set for this timeframe. The international news website Montel reported, citing a recently published report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Renewables 2024.

According to the IEA’s main scenario, total installed onshore wind capacity in the EU will reach 310 GW by 2030, 90 GW below the target for that year. The agency expects an even larger shortfall for offshore wind farms, with capacity reaching roughly half of the 2030 target (111 GW), at 60 GW.

"Many countries have complex permitting processes for onshore and offshore wind projects, which, together with public opposition and grid bottlenecks, is slowing development," the IEA said, adding that these factors prevent developers from participating in auctions and often lead to projects being cancelled or delayed.

WindEurope’s outlook is even more pessimistic

WindEurope also expects the EU to fall short of its 2030 targets at the current pace of development. According to the association, current trends, together with announced projects and auctions for operating support, point to total installed capacity of 350 GW in 2030, including 296 GW of onshore wind farms and 54 GW of offshore installations.

"The main problem now is the electricity grids. New grid connections are not being built and approved quickly enough... Permitting for new wind farms remains problematic in many countries," the association said, identifying the key barriers to faster wind power development in the EU.

In addition to the issues outlined above, the economics of projects are also challenging, with persistently high interest rates, high investment costs and a relatively weak outlook for the wholesale electricity market.

WindEurope says that, to improve the situation, member states need to fully implement the measures agreed under the new permitting rules and the wind energy package. Some countries should also improve their auction rules to make them sufficiently attractive to investors.