Czechia may become a net electricity importer in 2027, or as soon as next year in a critical scenario

The Czech Republic will become a net electricity importer in the coming years if coal-fired power plants are phased out. Under the critical scenario outlined by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MPO), this could happen next year, although the ministry considers 2027 more likely. Representatives of the ministry and transmission system operator ČEPS told journalists today that electricity imports will not have a negative impact on customers. The Czech Republic currently imports around 15 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity a year, while also exporting as much as 30 TWh annually.

The projections are based on ministry analyses of various scenarios for the future development of the Czech energy sector. In the modelled critical scenario, which ministry representatives say is not very likely, the coal-fired power plants operated by energy groups Sev.en and SUAS Group are expected to shut down in 2025, followed two years later by the coal-fired facilities of ČEZ. The ministry has also factored in several so-called stress factors, such as slower deployment of renewable energy sources, an unplanned outage at one of the nuclear units, or an outage of a power line from Germany.

If the critical scenario unfolds, the Czech Republic will become a slight net importer of electricity next year. However, according to René Neděla, director general of the MPO’s energy section, this would not threaten the security of electricity supply. In 2027, the share of imported electricity in total consumption is estimated to rise to around 20 percent.

The MPO considers a scenario in which imports exceed exports in 2027 more likely at present. According to ČEPS, the Czech grid should be prepared for this, and generation capacity abroad should also be sufficient. The total technical capacity of the transmission network for imports is 20 TWh a year, according to ČEPS Vice-Chairman Svatopluk Vnouček. The state-owned company plans to increase it to 24 TWh by 2030. Vnouček also noted that the volume of imports will depend primarily on the cost of generating electricity in the Czech Republic and neighbouring countries.

According to the ministry, electricity imports will not significantly affect its price. With the continued development of renewable generation, electricity prices should gradually fall, regardless of whether the electricity is generated in the Czech Republic or abroad, the ministry says. Exceptions will occur when cheap electricity imports are unavailable or renewable energy is less available. However, such situations should become less frequent over time. According to ČEPS, electricity will remain sufficiently available on neighbouring markets for imports to the Czech Republic, even under critical scenarios.

Neděla also noted that the Czech Republic already imports some electricity during certain periods of the year, primarily because imported generation is more economical. However, the annual balance still shows that more electricity was exported from the Czech Republic than imported. Most electricity currently flows in from Germany. Last year, it accounted for about half of total imports.

On Wednesday, the government discussed a set of measures prepared by the MPO in case coal is phased out rapidly. The main measures are expected to simplify permitting for new sources and expand financial support for sources needed to ensure decarbonisation. “These will include sources such as natural gas, as well as hydrogen and technologies for capturing and storing carbon dioxide,” Neděla said. The measures also include a safety net extending the emergency measures that the Energy Regulatory Office (ERÚ) can currently issue beyond the scope of a licence, which now apply to heat generation facilities, to those used to generate electricity as well. ČEPS will also amend its rules for selecting providers of balancing services.

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