Analyst: Trend of falling gas and electricity consumption in Czechia ended in the second quarter

The trend of falling gas and electricity consumption ended in the second quarter, according to consumption data cited by Kamil Rajdl, a data analyst at Amper Meteo. After adjusting for the effect of weather, gas consumption rose by 2.2 percent year on year, while electricity consumption fell by just 1.5 percent, and was already rising in June.

Actual gas consumption was lower than last year thanks to very warm weather. All months so far this year have been warmer than average, which significantly affected the length of the heating season and heating demand in April and May. Gas consumption was much lower than last year in April and May, down by more than a fifth in April. In June, consumption was unchanged year on year. Overall, gas consumption in the second quarter was 15 percent lower year on year and 24 percent below the 2017–2021 five-year reference period.

„Air temperatures were the decisive factor, making it possible to save significant amounts of energy. Compared with the reference period, however, substantial savings of around 17 percent are still evident even after adjusting for the effect of weather,“ said company meteorologist Petr Skalák.

Czechs began saving gas mainly in 2022, when prices started to rise, with the increase accelerating at the time as a result of the effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Electricity savings began to emerge last year thanks to the rapid expansion of photovoltaic installations. This year, however, the decline in consumption came to a halt in May and June, and a slight increase also began to emerge. After adjusting for the effect of weather, consumption was 3.4 percent lower year on year in April, just 1.5 percent lower in May, and had already risen by 0.7 percent in June. Compared with the 2017–2021 reference period, weather-adjusted savings amount to 9.3 percent.

„Electricity consumption trends in recent months could point to an economic recovery, but also to a slowdown in new small photovoltaic installations. Given the development of electricity prices, this would not be surprising, as it extends the payback period for investments. The situation will deteriorate further in 2025, as many companies offering fixed purchase prices have significantly cut the price per megawatt-hour of electricity generated, making electricity sales practically unprofitable,“ said CFO Michal Nádeníček.

However, he said installations still make sense as an investment in the future, helping reduce exposure to sudden increases in commodity prices.

Since the beginning of the year, 3522 GWh of electricity has been generated from renewable energy sources in Czechia, accounting for 10.6 percent of total consumption. Photovoltaic power plants accounted for 56 percent of this generation, and their installed capacity increased by roughly half year on year in the first half of the year. Hydropower plants accounted for one-third of generation and wind power plants for 10 percent.

Amper Group bases its calculations and analyses on publicly available data. It obtains electricity consumption data from ČEPS and current gas data from NET4GAS. It also works with data from the Energy Regulatory Office (ERÚ) and ČEZ.