Electric cars could overtake diesel cars in Norway by 2026

In Norway, a pioneer in the shift away from cars with internal combustion engines, electric cars could become the largest category of passenger vehicles by 2026. By 2030, they will account for more than half of all cars. Bloomberg reported this, citing a forecast released today by the Norwegian Road Federation (OFV). In the Nordic country, batteries already power a quarter of cars, and according to OFV, electric cars are expected to outnumber petrol cars this year.

The shift to electric cars in Norway is partly driven by the country's generous incentives. Norway has a population of 5.5 million and aims to become the first country to end sales of new petrol and diesel cars, by 2025. Nine out of ten cars sold at the beginning of this year were battery-electric vehicles.

According to the forecast, electric cars could reach a 36% share of the total fleet by 2026, amounting to just over one million cars. In that case, they would outnumber diesel cars (31%) and petrol cars (21%). By 2030, electric cars will make up more than half of the cars on Norwegian roads, while just 24% of vehicles will run on diesel and 15% on petrol.

The OFV federation also estimates that hybrid cars will have a market share of around 12% in 2026, falling to approximately 9% by 2030.

If more countries followed Norway's example, global oil demand could peak sooner than expected. The International Energy Agency (IEA) now sees demand peaking before 2030, with cars and vans accounting for more than 25% of oil demand.