This year is likely to be the warmest on record

The average global temperature is expected to rise this year for the first time to more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 2024 is therefore very likely to surpass 2023 in this respect, which is currently the warmest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported.

The average global temperature from January to September this year was 1.54°C higher than in the pre-industrial era. The WMO therefore considers it likely that warming above pre-industrial levels for the year as a whole will be at least 1.5°C. The goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change are to limit global warming to below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

"One or more years with warming above 1.5°C does not mean that the Paris Agreement goal is out of reach. Although the Paris Agreement does not specify a particular time period, exceeding the warming threshold should be viewed over a longer period, typically decades or more," the WMO said.

The organization added that temperature anomalies over periods of days, months or a few years are highly variable, partly due to the effects of natural phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña.

"The record rainfall and flooding, rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, deadly heat, relentless droughts and fires we have seen this year in various parts of the world are, unfortunately, our new reality and a foretaste of our future," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, adding that greenhouse gas emissions must be cut and the monitoring and understanding of the changing climate strengthened.

Record greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere

The news that the record for the highest measured average global temperature is likely to be broken again comes shortly after the WMO reported that concentrations of three key greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide—reached record levels in 2023.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached a record 420 ppm (parts per million) last year, an increase of 2.3 ppm year on year and 151% above pre-industrial levels. Methane recorded the highest relative increase compared with pre-industrial levels, at 265%. The increase in nitrous oxide concentrations over the same period was 125%.