Analysts: US under Trump to boost fuel exports, lowering energy prices in Europe

Following Republican Donald Trump’s likely victory in the US presidential election, the United States will ramp up its own production of fossil fuels, led by oil and gas, so energy supplies to Europe can also be expected to increase. Ultimately, this could lead to lower fuel and gas prices in Czechia. This is according to analysts’ comments on the impact of the US election on Europe’s energy sector. They also expect pressure to grow to reconsider European environmental policy.

„Republicans have long supported domestic energy production and faster approval of new industrial projects. Trump’s victory could therefore lead to higher US production and exports of oil and LNG,“ said Finlord manager Boris Tomčiak.

He said Trump’s foreign policy could even trigger a price war in the oil market, which would be good news for drivers in Czechia. The analyst expects the US to increase its energy supplies overall in the coming years.

XTB analyst Jiří Tyleček also pointed to plans to increase oil and gas production under Donald Trump. „The US will produce more energy, which should have a positive impact on energy prices in Czechia,“ Tyleček said. He noted that the US administration announced early this year that it was suspending approvals for new LNG export terminals in the US. „I would argue that such a move would not have happened under Trump and that the decision will be reversed,“ the analyst said.

According to Tyleček, the US shift towards fossil fuels could further intensify pressure on Europe’s green policies. „The EU may be forced to ease its strict environmental measures to save at least some manufacturing in Europe. This could bring energy prices down further,“ he said. Trump could also influence Europe’s energy sector through geopolitical factors and protectionist trade policies, he added.

Vít Hradil, chief economist at Cyrrus, also expects fossil energy sources to become cheaper globally. He said the Trump administration would be more supportive of their production than the current US government.

Petr Štajner, director of project development at energy company Greenbuddies, noted that energy pricing mechanisms are so complex that it is difficult to predict how prices will evolve based solely on the outcome of a single election. „However, Trump did, of course, declare before the election that he strongly supports fossil fuel extraction and reducing regulation and, consequently, costs. Opening up federal land to extraction may also be on the table. Overall, Trump’s victory can therefore be expected to lead to increased extraction and support for fossil fuel exports, including natural gas,“ Štajner said.