IEA: Oil demand growth will slow next year, but records will still be broken

Oil demand growth will slow next year compared with this year. In its August report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that year-on-year demand growth will reach 2.2 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year. Average demand would thus reach a record 102.2 million bpd in 2023, and the record would be broken again next year. However, new reports from China could change the outlook.

According to the IEA, oil demand is currently setting new records. Demand reached 103 million bpd in June, and data available so far for August suggest that this recent monthly record could soon be broken again.

“Demand from China was stronger than expected. It reached new highs despite ongoing concerns about the state and health of the economy,” the IEA said, commenting on record monthly demand.

The IEA estimates that oil demand will grow by 2.2 million bpd this year, with China accounting for around 70% of that increase. Next year, however, analysts expect the post-pandemic recovery to slow, while the development of electric mobility will also contribute to slower oil demand growth. Growth between 2023 and 2024 is forecast at 1 million bpd, with demand expected to reach 103.2 million bpd in 2024.