Czech spot electricity prices went off the rails in November

The average price of electricity on the Czech spot market in Novembercurrently stands at EUR 293/MWh. The most expensive quarter-hour was recorded on Monday, 9 November, at 17:30, whenthe price reached EUR 640/MWh. The sharp increase is due to a combination of weaker wind power generation, the onset of colder weather, expensive gas and heavily utilized coal-fired plants.

The energy crisis has hit European day-ahead electricity markets in full force at the start of November. Weak winds and overcast skies are curbing renewable energy generation, and this is immediately reflected in prices on the Czech day-ahead market.

Compared with October, when the average day-ahead market price was EUR 181.08/MWh, this represents an increase of 62%. Last November, a megawatt-hour cost an average of EUR 111.5; this year, it is around 2.6 times higher. Even the crisis-hit November 2022 was not as expensive, ending at EUR 196.8/MWh. According to Energostat data, the last time the monthly average was higher than this year was in September 2022, when the price stood at EUR 365.48/MWh. This year’s figure, however, covers only the days of the month so far, so it may still change—in either direction.

Markets are not set to calm down on Tuesday either, with the price climbing to EUR 533.75/MWh at 16:45. Low prices have disappeared from the market altogether, let alone negative prices. The lowest price recorded in the first ten days of November was EUR 206.09/MWh, at 15:00 on Sunday, 8 November. In other words, the price has not fallen below EUR 206/MWh in any quarter-hour so far this month.

What is behind such a sharp rise in electricity prices, and why are high prices not limited to a few hours during the evening peak? In the following section of the article, we use four charts to show how electricity prices are evolving, how dramatically German wind power generation has fallen, and why gas-fired generation—including the Czech Počerady power plant—is increasingly coming back into play. We also look at whether the current situation resembles the energy crisis and what could determine the future direction of prices.

Similar conditions are affecting other European countries, too, thanks to interconnected markets. Prices in Germany exceeded EUR 600/MWh during evening quarter-hours on Monday, and the average day-ahead price on the German market for Monday settled at EUR 345.64/MWh, according to Bloomberg.

France is in a similar position. Its average price for Monday climbed to EUR 334.12/MWh, the highest since December 2022. According to weather and trading forecasts, weak winds and low solar irradiance are expected to persist in northwestern and central Europe at least until Wednesday. Prices are also high because gas—which is already expensive this year—often sets the price of electricity.

Wind power has almost disappeared from Germany’s generation mix, while solar output is falling due to the season and cloudy skies

Czech prices are shaped primarily by the German market, to which the Czech power system is interconnected and commercially linked. That is where the biggest changes have occurred over the past three weeks. German onshore wind farms were generating 47 186 MW at 20:00 on 23 October. At 11:00 on Monday, 9 November, they were generating just 1 573 MW—around thirty times less.

Solar power cannot make up for the missing wind generation either. German solar plants reached an output of 14 361 MW at 12:00 on 9 November, compared with 39 431 MW at the same time on 12 October. At the same time, consumption is rising. The German power system load at 11:00 on 9 November was 70 199 MW, the highest in the past month. These figures do not show directly how much of this is due to cold weather, but the trend is consistent with the start of the heating season. Meteorologists at MetDesk forecast that temperatures will be 1 to 3 °C below normal this week.

Gas and coal are making up the shortfall—but at a high cost

The missing generation is being replaced mainly by fossil-fuel plants. German gas-fired power plants were generating 19 169 MW at 16:00 on 9 November. At the same time, lignite-fired plants were running at 13 264 MW and hard-coal plants at 5 090 MW.

This shows what is setting the price. When the wind is not blowing and the sun is setting, gas- and coal-fired units set the price. With gas and emissions allowances expensive, their electricity is costly to produce, and the market has to pay that price.

The evening peak of around EUR 640/MWh therefore reflects not only fuel costs, but also a shortage of cheaper generation. Kpler analyst Alessandro Armenia told Bloomberg that prices this high cannot be explained by expensive natural gas alone, but point to a lack of generating capacity in the system. According to him, similar market conditions could continue at least until mid-January.

Pressure is also being increased by below-average hydropower generation following a dry year and maintenance at French nuclear units, which is limiting available capacity. In many ways, the situation resembles the energy crisis. Several adverse factors came together then, too: a shortage of natural gas supplies, reduced output from French nuclear power plants and relatively low hydropower generation.

This is also reflected in forward-market prices. December contracts in Germany and France are trading on the EEX exchange at close to EUR 200/MWh, more than twice last year’s level, Bloomberg reports.

Gas is also coming back into play in Czechia

Domestic generation is changing in much the same way. Czech gas-fired plants have generated 0.25 TWh so far in November. That is almost as much as they generated for all of November 2025, namely 0.248 TWh. Gas’s share of domestic generation has therefore risen from around 4.8% in October to 12.8% in November so far. However, the month is incomplete, which limits the comparison.

The increase in natural gas-fired generation is also clearly visible in the output of Počerady, the largest combined-cycle gas power plant in Czechia. It has already generated more electricity this year than in the previous two years, and will certainly surpass its 2023 output as well.

High electricity generation from gas-fired plants is generally not good news ahead of the coming winter. Europe is competing for gas supplies on the global market and is entering the winter with gas storage levels at a record low, leaving it dependent on a relatively mild winter. In addition, a ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas is due to take effect at the beginning of the year.

The future direction of wholesale markets will depend mainly on the weather. If the wind “returns” and the cold is not severe, the current price level may prove temporary.