Germany's election and its impact on climate and energy policy

The Christian Democratic Union, led by chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, won Germany's snap election. The shape of the future coalition will now set the course for German climate policy.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), won 28.5 % of the vote, making them the largest force in the Bundestag. As Clean Energy Wire reported, the parties' vision for the future of climate and energy policy is not entirely clear. Much will therefore depend on the shape of the future coalition, which could include the Social Democrats (SPD) and possibly the German Greens.

Given the fragmented political landscape, Germany is likely to face a lengthy process of forming a government, with coalition talks potentially lasting several months. The future government's position could prove decisive for the fate of some key elements of the Green Deal, such as the ban on sales of new cars with internal combustion engines from 2035 (explicitly rejected in the CDU's programme) and the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

The election result signals a shift in political priorities. The new government is expected to pursue Germany's 2045 climate neutrality target and continue expanding renewable energy sources. However, the level of ambition and pace of implementation remain uncertain. The composition of the next coalition will influence the scale of investment in green technologies, emissions reductions and Germany's role in shaping EU climate policy.

Merz's task will be to balance economic stability with climate measures, which have not gained much popularity in Germany in recent years. Key challenges include decarbonising industry, the sustainable transformation of the heating sector and the transformation of the key transport industry. In addition, the new government will have to address Germany's growing need for climate change adaptation.

The collapse of Olaf Scholz's government in November 2024 halted national policymaking, including in the energy sector, and disrupted decision-making in the EU, where Germany has a strong position thanks to its economy. After announcing the CDU's victory, Merz said he intended to form a functioning government quickly, with the aim of completing the process by the end of April. However, forming a stable coalition is likely to be difficult. Merz's controversial stance on migration and his previous cooperation with the far-right AfD have strained relations with the SPD and the Greens, which is likely to complicate negotiations.

Climate and energy policy were not central issues in the election campaign. Issues such as domestic security, social welfare, migration and economic growth took precedence, while climate ranked only fifth among voters' concerns. The SPD recorded its worst post-war result, with 16.4 %, while the Greens also performed less well. Meanwhile, the far-right AfD nearly doubled its share of the vote, reflecting broader European trends.

The new Bundestag must convene by 24 March, while the outgoing government will continue its duties until the new government is sworn in. During coalition talks, the direction of Germany's energy transition and climate policy will depend on the composition of the next government.