The true state of Russia's energy sector is unknown. Russia is hiding or manipulating data

Analysts approached by the international energy news site Montel to comment on the state of Russia's energy sector say that the detailed data needed to draw an accurate conclusion are unavailable,  particularly on exports. They also question the reliability of the data that are available and are still published by the country's Ministry of Energy or other state agencies.

“A lot of data sources are missing. It is bizarre, and the [Energy] Ministry is adjusting statistics and hiding the real figures,” says a Moscow-based commodity analyst, adding that much of the data is classified as “secret”. “It is quite difficult to get information about Russia's energy sector now.”

As an example of classified data, the analyst cites figures from the oil market. These are, they say, deliberately made less transparent, partly because of Western sanctions and partly because production targets set by the OPEC+ group are being exceeded.

In its August report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says Russia's oil exports stood at around 7.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, with 80% of exports going to China or India. July production was 9.4 million bpd, against a production target of 9.5 million bpd. Russia committed to staying within that target from March through the end of this year, and in August the target was voluntarily reduced by a further 500,000 bpd.