From sunshine to landfill? Panel recycling will be a key challenge in coming decades

Solar PV now accounts for almost half of globally installed renewable energy capacity, and its expansion is continuing at a rapid pace. More than 90% of current global solar capacity has been installed in the past ten years. Most of today’s panels are therefore still awaiting the end of their technical lifetime. IRENA expects panels to last around 25 to 30 years, but also anticipates their earlier replacement with more efficient technologies. The volume of solar PV waste will therefore rise significantly in the coming decades.

According to IRENA’s scenario consistent with a 1.5°C pathway, the cumulative volume of end-of-life solar panels worldwide by 2050 will exceed 200 million tonnes. Annual waste volumes are expected to surpass 25 million tonnes in the same year.

End-of-life solar panels are expected to account for up to 21% of e-waste in 2050. This represents an increase of 20 percentage points compared with 2030, when solar panels are expected to account for around 1% of e-waste. The European Union is expected to account for approximately 12% of the total cumulative volume. Within the EU itself, annual volumes of end-of-life panels are set to exceed one million tonnes around 2040 and rise to more than 2.2 million tonnes by 2050.