Is Donald Trump a dinosaur? The voters will decide

The concept of global warming was created by the Chinese to harm American industry. This statement, posted on Twitter by current presidential candidate Donald Trump in 2012, has become a symbol of Trump’s utter incompetence for his opponents. As such, it continues to be recalled and mocked by both Democratic politicians and well-known celebrities, including tennis player Martina Navratilova.

Trump himself later described his statement as a joke. Yet this episode is a fairly apt illustration of Trump’s overall style as the Republican contender for the world’s most important office. It appears that he continues to hand his opponents easy opportunities with absurd statements. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton seems to be readily gaining a way to floor her rival by pointing out that he is completely detached from reality.

Trump is making speeches about the need to continue using coal, build a new oil pipeline and abolish the Paris climate agreement at a time when America appears to have embarked on a clear and irreversible path towards green energy and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Can such a Republican candidate have any chance at all?

Let us set aside for now the question of whether it is possible to agree with Trump on anything. Either way, is it really possible for anyone today to reverse the direction of US energy and climate policy so radically? And how is it possible that, at a time of “American acceleration on the path to clean energy” — in the words of the country’s environmental optimists — Trump’s successes to date mean the possibility must be taken seriously that the United States will once again undermine international agreements, as it did under President George W. Bush?

Republicans also want clean energy

Much suggests that the development of “clean energy” in fact has support across the entire political spectrum, including among the Republicans whom Trump is leading into the election battle. At first glance, then, Donald Trump appears to be something of a dinosaur — a creature from a bygone era that no longer belongs in today’s world.

Ron Pernick, head of research and advisory firm Clean Edge, points to a study according to which 14 US states already generate more than 10 percent of their electricity from renewable sources — excluding hydropower. Pernick considers it particularly interesting that the TOP 10 states whose utilities make the greatest use of wind, solar and geothermal power plants include an even mix of red states, traditionally Republican, and blue Democratic states.

Red states are not lagging behind in the development of electric mobility or smart grids either. Pernick also points to last year’s survey of homeowners, in which all demographic groups — including Republican voters — identified solar power as the most important energy source, with 50 percent of respondents preferring it overall. Wind power ranked second in the overall results (42%), while coal-fired generation came last (8%).

According to Ron Pernick, support for clean energy can be felt in cities, states and companies across the country, whether in setting targets for renewables, green buildings, energy storage or electric vehicles.

A more cautious Trump

There is no doubt that Pernick is right in his description of present-day America. But that does not mean Donald Trump, an advocate of “fossil energy”, has no chance. All the more so because, without apparently changing his style of public appearances in any fundamental way, he nevertheless seems to be beginning to weigh his words more carefully.

When Trump recently spoke in favour of continuing coal, oil and gas extraction, he first noted that he intended to support innovation and all energy sources — including renewables. Defending his continued faith in fossil fuels, he argued that “you can’t discount the energies that are working better right now”. These words undoubtedly sounded unconvincing to a large part of the American public, but on the other hand Trump came very close to the traditional Republican view of the economy. He would likely find common ground here with many of his Republican rivals, who lost to him in the primaries.

While many Republican voters probably do believe in the future of renewables, free and fair competition remains an important value for many of them. These voters will be receptive to the argument that strong support for green energy effectively disadvantages other sources. (Although the current problems of US coal are in fact mainly due to cheaper competition from shale gas.)

Too much government intervention

Traditional Republican voters also oppose government intervention and regulation, as well as rules “imposed from abroad”. Donald Trump can therefore hope that, despite Americans’ current preferences concerning the future of various energy sources, he will win over many supporters by criticising environmental regulations that make life difficult for coal-fired power.

Ron Pernick also notes that when it comes to “policy initiatives” in favour of renewables, traditionally Democratic states have a major lead over Republican ones. Many Republicans may believe in green energy, but they would prefer it to succeed on its own in tough competition.

To these “pro-market” Republicans, one must add the large number of voters in states now suffering from the decline of coal-fired power. Hillary Clinton’s stance that new jobs need to be found for miners in more promising sectors may sound rational in many parts of the US, but it will not be very popular in the affected regions.

And while the argument that renewables already create more jobs than coal is heard loudly, Trump need not necessarily be on the defensive here either. He is not calling for the elimination of any jobs, including in the renewables sector; on the contrary, he intends to preserve them in the coal industry. Trump can quite effectively attack Clinton by claiming, albeit not entirely fairly, that she instead wants to deprive Americans of jobs.

Above all, a strong America

Trump’s rhetoric about the need to defend national interests may appeal to a fairly significant portion of voters. The imposition of “foreign ideas” from abroad — even though Obama’s America also helped shape them — has already been mentioned. The appeal of the Republican candidate’s words is also partly strengthened by his rejection of US contributions to the “fight against climate change” abroad.

In this respect, Trump’s scepticism about the existence and causes of climate change may ultimately also help him win some voters. This businessman, now embarking on a political career, is after all softening his language somewhat here as well. According to him, “weather changes” obviously exist, but he doubts humanity’s contribution to global warming.

Here again, he apparently aligns with traditional Republican voters. A March survey by Yale and George Mason universities showed that belief in climate change is rapidly growing among Republicans and that 56 percent of Trump voters are convinced that it is real. However, more than half of them believe that humanity’s role in it is not decisive.

And when it comes to national interests, Trump’s tough approach towards the OPEC oil cartel will undoubtedly find supporters as well. Trump calls for “complete American energy independence” and, although many observers consider it nonsense, these words fit the relatively popular slogan of making America strong again. His words that America will never again have to beg for oil in the Middle East may also sound appealing.

Do not underestimate Trump

Everything suggests that Donald Trump’s campaign team is nevertheless succeeding in creating certain boundaries that the Republican candidate should not cross. On the one hand, he wins over more radical-minded voters with sudden and sharp verbal outbursts. But as his speech on energy policy at a recent conference in the “oil state” of North Dakota showed, when necessary he can more or less adhere to a considered strategy that also targets a broader group of voters.

By supporting a “fossil future” for the United States, Trump has of course provoked strong opposition among some Americans, but he may convince another segment of voters that he is truly concerned with national interests, a strong economy, preserving jobs and a fair market environment. In essence, this is what at least traditional Republican voters expect from their candidate. It may not necessarily be enough to win the White House, but Donald Trump should not be underestimated either.

The author works as a consultant and energy projects specialist for the HATcom agency.

Lead photo: Gage Skidmore