Coronavirus significantly affects electricity demand, falling by up to 15% in EU countries

In France, electricity demand has fallen by up to 15% as a result of the spread of coronavirus, according to the local transmission system operator. Italy is reporting a similar decline. While a slight decrease can also be observed in Czechia, it is not as pronounced and is rather in the higher single-digit percentage range. 

Extensive measures against the further spread of coronavirus have already affected electricity demand in Europe. Although the new measures have only recently been implemented, they are already contributing to lower electricity demand in some countries. In the Czech Republic, it is so far falling more moderately than in other European countries.

It can also be expected that the impacts on electricity demand will increase, mainly given the slowdown in some industrial production. One example is German carmaker Volkswagen, which has halted production for three weeks.

The current situation appears to have had the greatest impact on Italy and France. According to publicly available information from both countries, electricity demand has fallen by more than 15% in each of them. According to S&P Global, Germany is currently faring best, where only a slight drop in electricity demand in the low single-digit percentage range (2.5%) can be observed.

According to the transmission system operator, the reason for lower electricity demand in France is that more people are working from home and large industrial consumers are reducing their offtake.

“Electricity demand rises more slowly in the morning and does not reach its peak until 1 pm. Demand also falls significantly faster during the day than under normal circumstances,” the French system operator told Reuters.

For comparison, during the financial crisis in 2009, electricity demand among industrial consumers fell by 14%. This was, among other things, a result of the collapse in emissions allowance prices, for which there was less demand due to reduced industrial production and energy consumption.

Demand also falling in the Czech Republic

The decline in demand can also be seen in system load in the Czech Republic. It is currently at its lowest level since at least 2016. While demand in the eleventh week of this year was the highest in recent years, it has now fallen to its lowest level in the past five years.

However, this is still a relatively small decline, and the data will be more informative over a longer time horizon.

The drop in electricity demand was also confirmed by representatives of major energy companies in Czechia. According to ČEZ spokesperson Ladislav Kříž, the decline in demand can be estimated at around 6%. However, this figure is apparently not final, as the measures are only beginning to take effect.

“These are preliminary data so far. The downward trend continues every day, so we are already at a decline of six percent. The decline will certainly continue significantly, especially with the halt in production at car plants, which are linked to dozens of other suppliers,” said ČEZ spokesperson Ladislav Kříž.

Pražská energetika recorded a more significant decline, speaking of a drop of up to around 10%.

“It is logical – shopping centres are closed, transport is operating on a holiday schedule, shops and restaurants are closed, and other things are not functioning. Yes, household consumption may be rising slightly because people are at home, but that does not offset the decline,” said Petr Holubec of PRE.