Experts: blackout risk is low in Czechia, domestic grid is strong

The massive power outage in Spain and Portugal is an exceptional event in the European energy sector, experts say. The risk of similar problems in Czechia is currently low, as the domestic energy grid is among the strongest in Europe. This is according to comments from energy experts and analysts to the Czech News Agency (ČTK).

The entire Spanish mainland and Portugal were hit by a power outage today, causing problems particularly in transport.

According to Michal Macenauer, strategy director at consulting firm EGU, a similar incident is exceptional. Given that the reasons are still not entirely clear, he said it is not possible to assess the risk of a similar problem in Czechia. „The fact is that the Czech Republic currently covers a larger share of its load with conventional sources, and its grid has traditionally been very well and safely designed,“ Macenauer said.

According to Jan Palaščák, owner of the Amper energy group, the Iberian Peninsula’s transmission grid is generally more vulnerable. Czechia is very well secured in terms of energy, he said, and the risk of a large-scale blackout is significantly lower. „I would not hesitate to say that the Czech transmission and distribution grid is among the safest in the world and ranks among the ten highest-quality networks,“ Palaščák said. He noted that this is immediately apparent when compared with some developed countries and is also borne out by the data. According to him, people have been saying for 20 to 30 years that a blackout will hit Czechia, or that there will not be enough electricity within ten years at the latest, but so far nothing of the kind has happened. „It is more of a lobbying effort,“ Palaščák said.

According to Jiří Tyleček, an analyst at XTB, some changes in grid frequency have been recorded in Czechia. „Czechia’s advantage is that there is only a limited connection between us and the affected area. If the blackout’s epicentre were in Germany or Slovakia, the problems would be far worse,“ he said. He noted that a chain reaction leading to a blackout can never be ruled out in Europe’s interconnected electricity grid. „On the other hand, I consider the Czech grid stable and robust,“ he added.

Europe has faced similar problems in the past: in January 2021, Romania became the centre of outages. However, according to Tyleček, today’s problems in southern Europe have apparently already surpassed that incident in scale. „If the situation cannot be brought under control quickly, the damage could run into several billion euros. A lot will depend on what happens next and whether the outages can be stopped or continue to spread like an avalanche,“ Tyleček warned.

Radim Dohnal, an analyst at Capitalinked.com, noted that such problems can be prevented primarily through greater decentralisation and investment in securing power sources, substations and IT systems.