Germany still faces gas shortage risk in extreme cold, INES warns

Berlin, July 10 (CTK correspondent) – Germany will have no trouble filling its natural gas storage facilities ahead of the coming winter, but in the event of extreme cold they could be completely empty as early as the beginning of February 2025. This was announced today in the first outlook for the country’s winter supply of this key energy commodity by INES, the German association of gas and hydrogen storage operators. It warned that even with current energy-saving measures, Germany could run out of gas in a crisis scenario.

„As in the previous two winters, extremely cold temperatures would pose a challenge to gas supplies. We are not out of the woods yet. The secure gas supply we were used to before the energy crisis has not yet been restored in Germany,“ said INES chief Sebastian Heinermann.

He added that reducing consumption therefore remains a key issue this coming winter.

Germany, like other European countries, had to find new suppliers after turning away from Russian gas following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but made it through both previous heating seasons without problems. Thanks to warm weather, it also retained substantial gas reserves, allowing it to quickly refill its storage facilities over the summer.

INES’s analysis considers three scenarios: a winter with normal temperatures, based on 2016 figures; a warmer-than-average winter, based on 2020; and an exceptionally cold winter, like the one Europe experienced in 2010. If winter temperatures are average or above average, INES expects storage facilities to remain between 35 and 69 percent full in April 2025. In the event of extreme cold, however, they would be empty as early as the beginning of February, which could lead to a gas shortage.

According to INES’s calculations, current energy-saving measures would not be enough to make up for gas from depleted storage facilities. In that scenario, up to 20 percent of projected daily consumption could be unmet. If Germany were to face an exceptionally cold winter and deplete its reserves too soon, further energy-saving measures would be needed, the association said. INES recommends avoiding the rapid depletion of reserves too early and limiting consumption in non-critical sectors; solidarity among European Union countries will also play an important role.

INES plans to update its outlook regularly in the coming months, with a new estimate due on September 5. By the beginning of January, it should be clear whether Germany is actually at risk of a gas shortage.

German gas storage facilities are currently 84 percent full, so INES considers it certain that they will be filled to the levels required by law without difficulty. Germany’s Energy Security Act requires storage facilities to be 85 percent full by October 1 and 95 percent full by November 1. According to INES, however, storage levels could reach 100 percent as early as October. Germany even managed to exceed the 100 percent mark during the previous two winters. This is possible because the guaranteed storage capacity is lower than the amount of gas that can technically be injected into the facilities.

The German association INES has 16 members, which manage more than 90 percent of Germany’s gas storage capacity and around 25 percent of storage capacity in the European Union.