IEA: Global gas demand to hit a new record this year and next

Global gas demand will reach a new record this year and next, driven mainly by growth in Asia. However, delays to new supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will constrain supply. Gas demand will increase by more than 2.5 percent this year to a record 4.2 trillion cubic meters, and rise by a further 2.3 percent in 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said this in its outlook published today.

„The growth in global gas demand that we are seeing this year and next reflects the gradual recovery from the global energy crisis, which hit markets hard,“ said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security.

However, the balance between supply and demand is fragile and could fluctuate, he said. Producers and consumers therefore need to work closely together to navigate this uncertain period.

Gas demand in Europe is expected to fall by two percent this year, thanks to lower use in power plants. But it is expected to rise by one percent in 2025, as more gas will be needed by the construction, commercial and industrial sectors.

Gas demand, particularly in Europe, fell sharply between 2022 and 2023 as prices surged due to lower gas supplies from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. This increased demand for LNG.

Global LNG supplies are expected to increase by nearly six percent this year as several major projects, particularly in the United States, begin operations. But they will rise by only two percent next year, the slowest growth since 2020.

The IEA also warned that one of the biggest uncertainties ahead of this winter is the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, as existing contracts expire at the end of this year. This could mean an end to all Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine and require higher LNG imports into Europe next year. LNG plays a decisive role in maintaining the global balance between supply and demand.