Germany to become a net importer of electricity for the first time since 2002 this year

Germany will become a net importer of electricity this year for the first time since 2002, and the trend could continue until 2025, analysts told Montel.Data published last week by the Ageb statistics group showed that Germany’s net imports will reach a record 9.2 TWh in 2023.

Germany recorded net electricity imports of 9.2 TWh in 2023—the balance of electricity imports and exports—making it a net importer of electricity for the first time since 2002. Exports fell by 24% year on year in 2023, while imports rose by 38%.

“What is particularly significant is that for much of the year, German coal was not competitive with electricity generated abroad,” Christoph Maurer, chief executive of energy consultancy Consentec, told Montel.

Electricity generation from German lignite-fired power plants fell by 25% year on year this year, reaching its lowest level since Ageb’s records began in 1990. Hard coal generation was down 31%, according to Ageb, marking the second-lowest output after 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact.

Germany also shut down its remaining three nuclear reactors in April, with a combined installed capacity of 4.1 GW. Nuclear power generation consequently fell by 80% year on year.

Germany may remain a net importer in the coming years

Given current fundamentals, Germany could remain a net importer of electricity next year and “possibly in 2025 as well”, said Clement Bouilloux, an analyst at EnAppSys. Bouilloux pointed to Germany’s plans to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2038 at the latest and expectations of continued higher output from France’s nuclear fleet.

However, stronger European electricity demand as a result of the electrification of transport and heating, together with the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, could see Germany become a net exporter again, Maurer said.