Investors in oil majors push for a change of direction. Will another turnaround follow BP?

Interest in European oil and gas majors has been picking up again in recent months. Just a few years ago, they were under the scrutiny of investors who welcomed their efforts to cut hydrocarbon production and develop renewable energy sources. Today, these companies appear to be changing course, and investors not only in Europe but also in the US are once again watching the shift closely.

British major BP announced that it would once again increase investment in oil and gas production. Its Dutch counterpart Shell plans to grow its oil and gas production by 1% a year through 2030. Meanwhile, France’s TotalEnergies has increased gas production since the start of the year and is focusing on the profitability of its refineries.

Given their size and influence, the moves by these companies are attracting attention from the public and analysts in financial centres across Europe and the US. In recent months, particular attention has focused on British company BP, which unveiled a major strategic shift at the start of 2025 under its new chief executive (appointed in 2023) and revamped management team.

Alongside these changes, another development that came to light in February 2025 attracted considerable media and investor attention. According to the Financial Times, investment firm Elliott Management acquired a nearly 5% stake in BP. This made it the company’s third-largest shareholder, giving it significant influence over its strategic direction.

The size of the hedge fund’s stake is crucial: Elliott Management is known for its ability to push for changes in the management and strategy of the companies it invests in. It is therefore unsurprising that the market often describes it as an “activist investor” with a reputation as a tough negotiator. Analysts are now watching to see what direction BP takes over the long term and how this affects its share price, which many believe has been undervalued for some time.

Investor diversifies its bets – will other companies change course too?

Besides BP, Elliott Management appears to be diversifying its activities elsewhere in the oil and gas industry. According to data from the UK regulator, the hedge fund opened a short position of 0.5% in Shell in March 2025. It has also taken a short position worth around 670 million euros (0.52%) in French company TotalEnergies.

Such moves have led the market to believe that while some investors are betting on an increase in BP’s share price, the US investor is more sceptical about the prospects for Shell and Total, and may consider their shares overvalued. So far, however, no information has emerged publicly about whether the company plans to take a similar approach with Shell or TotalEnergies as it has with its British rival.

Shell chief executive Wael Sawan, however, updated the company’s strategy at a recent investor day in New York and promised to increase returns by 2030. The main goal is to cement Shell’s position as the world’s leading trader of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Outside Europe, Elliott Management is also expanding its activities in the US. It has increased its stake in US company Phillips 66 from $1 billion to $2.5 billion. According to Reuters, the fund wants to use its influence to push for operational changes and the spin-off of the petroleum products refining division. Press releases published in April indicate that talks with the company’s management are already under way.