EU does not need gas supplies from Russia, German economic institute says

Natural gas supplies to Germany and other European Union countries will remain secure in the long term even without supplies of natural gas from Russia. This is according to an analysis by the German economic institute DIW, reported by the international news outlet Clean Energy Wire. 

Researchers at DIW said demand for natural gas could be met without the need for imports from Russia even if natural gas consumption is higher by 2030.

"Demand can be met through pipeline imports and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from other countries, without the need for further development of LNG infrastructure in Germany," the researchers said.

According to the published information, the analysis covered various natural gas supply and demand scenarios. The results showed that a gas shortage caused by an interruption of supplies from Russia is unlikely in any of them, thanks to the possibility of imports from other countries such as Norway, the United States, Algeria, Nigeria and Qatar.

Sanctions on Russian LNG back on the agenda

The researchers therefore say that ensuring the security of natural gas supplies is no obstacle to extending sanctions to Russian LNG, an issue that has again come under significant discussion in recent weeks.

Some countries, including Belgium, Germany and France, have nevertheless asked the European Commission to assess, according to Reuters, whether restricting transshipments of Russian LNG at European terminals would have a greater impact on Russia's economy than on the EU.

According to Reuters, none of the countries contacted, nor the European Commission, commented on these questions. Negotiators are now seeking to finalise another package of sanctions before Hungary takes over the EU presidency in July. Hungary has previously opposed some sanctions targeting Russia. EU sanctions require unanimous approval.

Supplies from Russia down to a quarter

According to DIW, imports of natural gas from Russia to the European Union have fallen to a quarter of the levels recorded before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022.

"Russia nevertheless continues to supply LNG to Europe and has a significant influence on gas supplies to some countries in Central and Eastern Europe," the researchers added, noting that the EU as a whole currently relies on Russia for around 14% of its gas supplies, while Austria, for example, relied on Russian gas for 95% of its needs this winter.

According to DIW, however, it will be possible in the coming decades to meet demand for natural gas in all European countries without supplies from Russia, thanks to expectations of significantly higher LNG imports.