EU unlikely to ban Russian gas supplies by 2027

The European Commission’s plan to gradually ban Russian gas by 2027 could be derailed by opposition from EU member states dependent on Russia. Energy experts said this during a debate organised by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

"I don’t think EU member states will have the political will to do this on a voluntary basis,"Walter Boltz, a senior energy adviser at law firm Baker McKenzie Rechtsanwälte, said according to Montel.

In 2022, the European Commission presented the €210 billion REPowerEU plan, which aims to end the bloc’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. So far, however, no sanctions have been imposed on EU member states for importing Russian gas.

The share of Russian pipeline gas in EU imports fell from more than 40% in 2021 to around 8% in 2023. Imports of Russian LNG, by contrast, rose sharply, with Russia sending almost two-fifths of its LNG exports to the EU. As a result, Russia still accounted for almost 15% of total EU gas imports in 2023, according to the figures.

Hungary and Slovakia would probably be willing to import Russian gas even after the proposed deadline, Boltz said, noting that both countries have close ties with Moscow and are highly dependent on Russian gas. Austria could also be interested in continuing to receive Russian gas.

"Governments won’t have the courage to impose any sanctions. I can’t expect sanctions at EU level either, because that requires unanimous support," said Serhiy Makogon, former head of Ukraine’s gas transmission system operator TSOUA.

However, Europe is unlikely to face a gas shortage by 2027, according to ACER, the European energy regulator. If the EU meets its gas demand reduction targets, it could have a surplus of 30-40 billion m³ of long-term contracted LNG imports by 2027, an ACER report assessing the European LNG market says.