Trump’s deal with Putin on diesel sparks storm of criticism, but is unlikely to lower prices much

US President Donald Trump is facing criticism from opposition Democrats for reaching an agreement with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on supplying Russian diesel to the US and global markets. Berlin stressed that sanctions imposed on Russia over its war of aggression against Ukraine remain in place, while Warsaw questioned whether Moscow has a surplus of fuel. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo called the US move disappointing. Analysts contacted by CTK said the deal could help ease tensions in the global fuel market, but its impact on prices is likely to be minor.

Ukraine has been resisting Putin’s invasion since February 2022. The invasion has involved daily drone, missile and rocket attacks across the country. Ukraine has also carried out airstrikes on targets in Russia in self-defence.

Trump announced on Friday that he had agreed with Putin that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the US and global markets, with even larger deliveries to follow in the coming months. Putin subsequently said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products abroad, and that these deliveries would have a beneficial effect on the global economy.

The US consumes approximately 3.6 million barrels of diesel a day, so even if Russia delivers the promised 300,000 tonnes this month, that would amount to less than half of US daily consumption.

Trump reached the deal with Putin after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ignored repeated US requests for Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries, according to Axios. During talks with Ukrainian officials, US negotiators even threatened to stop providing Ukraine with intelligence over the attacks on Russian oil facilities, the outlet reported.

In a joint statement led by Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, Democratic senators called the deal a desperate arrangement with a “murderous dictator”. “President Trump’s announcement that the United States will allow global purchases of Russian diesel for six months is a complete betrayal of Ukraine, our European allies, and US national security,” the statement said.

Democratic leaders say Trump’s war with Iran has driven up fuel prices for all Americans and that the president is now “trying to clean up his mess”. They accuse the Trump administration of turning to Russia, its greatest security threat, instead of working with Europeans, who have also been hit by soaring fuel prices.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy strongly opposed Trump’s decision. He wrote on X on Friday that easing sanctions on Russia without a clear and lasting agreement on de-escalation was an obvious sign of weakness. The arrangement, Zelenskyy said, would only allow Russia to kill more people and cause greater damage.

Germany said today that it would keep sanctions on Russia in place and “takes note of the US decision regarding supplies of Russian diesel”. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski questioned on X whether Russia has a surplus of diesel, saying that even the Polish embassy in Moscow was facing a fuel shortage. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo called Trump’s deal with Putin disappointing, saying it would only weaken sanctions on Russia and allow it to continue financing its war against Ukraine.

Trump has recently blamed rising fuel prices on Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. He also says the unpopular war with Iran, launched by the US and Israel at the end of February, is not responsible for the price increases. Kyiv defends its strikes on Russian refineries, saying they are intended to limit Moscow’s ability to finance the invasion. Ukraine has repeatedly said it is ready to reciprocally scale back attacks on Russia’s energy sector if Russia does the same.

Trump, whose Republican Party faces the risk of losing its majority in November’s congressional elections, has also blamed Democrats for rising fuel prices. He says they are shutting down refineries in states they govern, including California.

Analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Trump’s deal “will fund Russia’s war effort and prolong the war in Ukraine”. They also noted that last year Russian exports accounted for just 9.5 percent of global diesel exports, and that in July this year the Russian government temporarily banned diesel exports after Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russian oil-processing capacity and logistics, including fuel supplies.

Analysts contacted today by CTK agreed that the deal’s impact on prices would probably be small. “The announced volumes are relatively small compared with the size of the global market, and the main problem is a lack of refining capacity, not a shortage of crude oil itself,” Deloitte analyst David Marek told CTK. In his view, any lasting price reduction will depend on the actual volume of deliveries and developments in the Middle East. “The promised volume of Russian diesel supplies is equivalent to half a day to one day of global demand, depending on which of the figures announced by President Trump are accurate. The impact on prices is therefore likely to be minor,” said XTB analyst Pavel Peterka.