Comment on Czech Industry Minister Karel Havlíček’s recent statement

Czech Industry Minister Karel Havlíček’s recent statement notes that, based on the new ENTSO-E Mid-term Adequacy Forecast (MAF) prepared by ČEPS, the Czech Republic faces a relatively massive decline in energy generation capacity by 2040 that cannot be replaced by renewables. The minister therefore stressed the need to build new nuclear capacity, not only to replace Dukovany but also additional units at Temelín to replace some of the coal units being shut down.

It should be stressed that the facts presented in the study in question and by the minister are neither new nor surprising. They are based on facts that had already underpinned the update of the State Energy Policy approved in 2015. It too states that a gradual transition from coal-based energy to a low-emission mix using decentralised renewable sources and new nuclear units is necessary.

However, the potential for new hydropower capacity in Czechia has already largely been exhausted (more details here), while the energy use of biomass competes with food production and the ecological functions of the landscape, whose importance is particularly apparent now as its resilience to climate change needs to be increased (more details here). There is some potential in wind energy (more details here), but experience in neighbouring Bavaria, which has similar conditions, shows that it will in reality be considerably limited. In Bavaria, wind sources supply only a few percent of its electricity needs. German experts themselves have described the situation with the construction of new onshore wind turbines across Germany over the past two years as a collapse and a catastrophe (see, for example, here). Even in Germany, despite intensive subsidies and construction, solar sources have not exceeded a 10% share of electricity generation. In Czechia, these should predominantly be decentralised sources (more details here).

If the Czech Republic needs to replace lignite-fired sources, which now supply more than 40%, with a low-emission mix, it cannot do without new nuclear units. This is why the update of the Czech Republic’s State Energy Policy envisages building several units at both Dukovany and Temelín, with nuclear electricity expected to cover around 50% of consumption after 2040. It should be stressed that intensive work on implementing this policy, including pathways towards building new nuclear capacity, was expected from the time of its approval. This is also why the minister says that the situation is highly urgent and is now already past the eleventh hour.

However, the decline in installed coal capacity is already under way, and the first turning point will come soon after 2022. Older coal-fired sources that fail to meet stricter environmental limits will be taken offline at that time. The Czech Republic will no longer be an electricity exporter. Its total annual generation will still match annual consumption, but we will probably already face problems covering certain parts of daily or seasonal load profiles. Almost nothing can be built by then. It is therefore necessary to intensively support, within the available scope, the flexibility of the electricity system on both the generation and consumption sides in order to bridge this critical period (more details here).

The study mentioned is even more urgent because it assumes an intensive expansion of electromobility and a transition towards electrification, which will lead to higher consumption. At the same time, it sees less time for the necessary measures. The two scenarios described in it reflect different possibilities for shutting down coal-fired sources. Final decisions have not yet been made on a number of coal power plants, including not only Počerady power plant. Compared with the scenarios described, it is also possible, for example, to consider extending Dukovany’s operation to 60 years, until 2045. Even so, this can in any case only buy some time; it does not change the need to build replacements for fossil-fuel sources as soon as possible.

The urgency of the minister’s call and the ČEPS study is also driven by developments in neighbouring countries, especially Germany, where large-scale shutdowns of fossil-fuel and nuclear capacity are also being planned. It is therefore highly likely that, when there is neither sunshine nor wind in the region, it truly will not be possible to import electricity from elsewhere, and prices may rise dramatically. At the same time, Germany will have large surpluses when conditions are ideal for wind and solar generation. New solar and wind capacity intended to feed into the grid will therefore be very unlikely to contribute to resolving our situation. Since we cannot rely on assistance from abroad, the shutdown of domestic sources must be sensibly phased with the deployment of their replacements.

In the current highly turbulent period, it is difficult to predict exact developments. In any case, the coming years in the energy sector will be very challenging. It is good that the minister recognises this. This is also apparent from his interview with idnes. More importantly, however, the minister must be able to move as soon as possible to implementing specific steps needed for the transition to a low-emission energy mix in Czechia. One of these is effective support for renewable sources in decentralised form, above all by reducing bureaucratic barriers. Similarly, opportunities must be opened up for introducing energy storage and smart control by producers and consumers. Another is the preparation of a financing model, the launch of a tender and the start of construction of a nuclear unit at Dukovany. Efforts should also be made to enable a further extension of the operation of the current Dukovany units, provided this is safe and efficient. The coal commission could also help create a working atmosphere and favourable conditions for implementing the path towards a Czech low-emission mix (more details here).

The ministry is already working on these tasks, and once they have been carried out, it will become clear how successful the individual approaches are in practice. At the same time, it will be possible to monitor developments among our neighbours and their impacts. If renewable energy develops as successfully as its supporters expect, there will be no need to deploy as many additional nuclear units and less effort will be needed in the nuclear sector. Conversely, if renewable energy proves less successful, a larger share of the low-emission mix can be delivered through nuclear energy. However, if we do not now create space for all low-emission sources to demonstrate their potential under our current conditions, we will once again be left empty-handed. But by then it will be far too late.