Germany risks missing annual climate target for first time as emissions fall too slowly

German greenhouse gas emissions fell by only around 2% year on year in the first half of this year, according to think tank Agora Energiewende. If the decline continues at the same pace, Germany will miss its overall annual emissions target for the first time.

Germany emitted approximately 327 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in the first six months of this year, representing a year-on-year decline of around 7 million tonnes, or 2%. The pace of emissions reductions is therefore significantly slower than would be needed to meet the country’s climate targets. The calculations were published by think tank Agora Energiewende based on preliminary data.

According to Agora’s projection, if the same pace of decline is maintained in the second half of the year, German emissions for the full year would reach approximately 635 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. The climate law sets a maximum of 625 million tonnes for 2026. Germany would therefore need to save an additional roughly 10 million tonnes to meet the target.

This would mark a significant turning point. Germany has so far managed to comply with its overall annual emissions limits set out in the national climate law, even though some individual sectors have failed to meet their sub-targets. If this year’s forecast materialises, the overall annual limit for the entire economy would be missed for the first time.

Emissions are not falling fast enough despite the positive impact of the Iran crisis

Developments in the first half of the year were mainly influenced by lower fossil fuel consumption. Agora notes that the main reason was the rise in oil and natural gas prices linked to the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Lower industrial production and a slight decline in road freight transport also contributed. Consumption of heating oil, which is widely used for heating in Germany, also fell significantly.

However, positive structural changes are also continuing. Sales of heat pumps and electric vehicles reached new records, helping to reduce emissions in the buildings and transport sectors, according to Agora. The pace of these changes is not yet sufficient, however, to offset the slower decline in emissions in other areas.

Developments in transport remain one of the weak points of German climate policy. According to a separate assessment by Agora Verkehrswende, transport emissions fell by only approximately 4 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in the first half of the year. Current trends also mean that transport may continue to be a sector lagging behind the pace needed to achieve climate targets.

Germany is doing even worse on long-term targets

The gap between the current pace and that which Germany will need by the end of the decade is even more pronounced. To meet its 2030 climate target, Germany should reduce emissions by approximately 40 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent annually, according to Agora. In 2025, however, they fell by only 9 million tonnes.

Germany’s climate law sets an emissions reduction target of 65% by 2030 compared with 1990, followed by 88% by 2040. The country is also to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. According to Agora, progress to date is therefore insufficient, particularly in the heating and transport sectors, while the rapid expansion of renewable energy is helping improve the overall balance.

According to Julia Bläsius, director of Germany’s Agora Energiewende, the government should build on the positive trend in electrification and renewables and better link it with industrial and energy policy. In her view, electrification and the expansion of renewable energy are the path to reducing Germany’s dependence on fossil fuels while increasing the economy’s resilience to energy crises.

The current government is criticised for its approach to climate policy

The government has repeatedly been criticised for not putting the fight against climate change first and even retreating from key measures, including weakening rules for the heating transition, freezing the national carbon price instead of its planned increase, and pushing at EU level to scrap the phase-out of internal combustion engine production by 2035, as well as weakening the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).

Agora’s calculations largely align with data published in early August by the energy statistics working group AG Energiebilanzen (AGEB). They show that energy-related carbon emissions, which account for approximately 85 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions, fell by approximately 2.5 percent (8 million tonnes) in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year.