OPEC+ found planned and actual oil production to be in line

The OPEC+ alliance reviewed compliance with agreements on oil production and discussed the market outlook ahead of a separate meeting of eight OPEC+ members on Sunday. They will decide whether to increase oil production.

The OPEC+ alliance, which produces about half of the world’s oil, has limited production for several years to support the market. This year, however, it changed course.

Eight members began increasing production in April and have accelerated the pace of those increases since then. They will meet separately on 3 August and are likely to agree on a further increase of 548,000 barrels per day in oil production for September, according to three OPEC sources and Reuters.

The increase would mean that by September, OPEC+ would have unwound its latest production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day, while the United Arab Emirates would meet its 300,000-barrel-per-day production increase quota ahead of schedule.

The move could help the organization increase its market share. It may also be a response to a request from US President Donald Trump, who called for higher production and reasonable fuel prices.

Earlier in the week, the 61st Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) also met. It included top ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia.

OPEC said in a post on X late Friday that the committee has no decision-making power over production levels and “its role is limited to monitoring compliance with production adjustments and reviewing overall market conditions”.

Compliance

After its online meeting, OPEC+ released a statement saying that the JMMC had reviewed oil production data for May and June 2025 and noted overall conformity among OPEC and non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC).

“The Committee once again stressed the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation, and urged countries that have not achieved full conformity to submit updated compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by 18 August 2025,” the statement said.

The JMMC meets every two months and has the authority to call a full OPEC+ meeting to address market developments if it considers this necessary.

Oil prices remained higher despite OPEC+ production increases, supported by summer demand and the fact that some members did not increase production by as much as their higher quotas allowed. Brent crude was trading at around USD 69 per barrel on Monday.