Will COP28 agree on a date to end fossil fuel use this year?

The president of the climate COP28 summit on Sunday urged negotiators to focus more on finding consensus on a deal to phase out the global use of oil, gas and coal.Reuters reports. The conference is also entering its final phase, with the summit scheduled to end on Tuesday, 12 December.

Talks in Dubai have highlighted deep international divisions over the future role of fossil fuels, complicating efforts by nearly 200 countries to reach a wide-ranging deal before the summit is scheduled to end.

A coalition of more than 80 countries, including the United States, the European Union and small island nations, aims to secure a deal that includes language on the “phase-out” of fossil fuels.

Saudi Arabia, along with Russia and others, opposes this, arguing that COP28 should focus on reducing emissions rather than the fuel sources that cause them.

China’s top climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua, said on Saturday that the COP28 deal could be considered successful only if it includes an agreement on fossil fuels. However, he did not specify whether Beijing would support an agreement to phase them out.

But the coalition is facing fierce resistance led by the OPEC group of oil producers and its allies. OPEC even sent a letter to its members on 6 December urging them to oppose any restrictions on fossil fuels at COP28.

What should the transition away from fossil fuels look like?

The latest version of the negotiating text, published on Friday, shows that countries are still considering a range of options. Agreement on “phasing out fossil fuels in line with the best available science” remains on the table, as does a phase-out of “unabated fossil fuels.”

According to information obtained by Reuters, the COP28 presidency does not intend to issue another draft before Monday, which would leave negotiators just one day to resolve their differences before the summit formally ends.

The conference has brought a number of other commitments from countries to meet targets such as tripling the use of renewable and nuclear energy, reducing coal consumption and limiting emissions of the greenhouse gas methane.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Sunday that these pledges, if fulfilled, would cut global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions by 4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030.

While this is a substantial figure, it represents only about a third of the emissions that need to be eliminated over the next six years to limit warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, the IEA said.