Czech energy prices will continue to fall next year, analysts expect

According to analysts, electricity and gas prices will continue to fall next year. However, the unstable geopolitical situation around the world remains a risk to the energy market. In 2026, Czech energy sector players also expect key steps in the transition from coal to new sources, or changes planned by the new government. This follows from analysts' comments to the Czech News Agency (ČTK).

Energy prices on the market gradually fell this year and, according to analysts, this trend will continue next year. According to XTB analyst Jiří Tyleček, the decline in gas prices will be particularly significant. "Europe has emerged from the energy crisis and gas supplies have stabilised," he noted. At the same time, however, he warned that the geopolitical situation worldwide remains a threat to further developments in the energy market.

Under the current circumstances, electricity could therefore become cheaper, according to Tyleček, thanks to a slight decline in wholesale prices and government measures. "For households, final prices could fall below CZK 3,000 per MWh. Compared with 2025, consumers seeking favourable price offers should therefore save money," Tyleček said. In his view, the situation for natural gas is even more favourable. "Contracts for 2026 indicate a household price of around CZK 1,100 to CZK 1,200 per MWh," he added.

Bidli analyst Petr Špirit also sees room for further declines in gas prices. "The combination of sufficient inventories and weaker demand creates room for further reductions in gas prices in the near term and, consequently, throughout 2026," he said.

He also pointed to the major impact of falling gas prices on electricity prices. According to him, this applies especially in Central Europe, where a large share of electricity is generated from gas. "In recent weeks, electricity prices have fallen alongside gas prices to more favourable levels, similar to those recorded for electricity during this August," Špirit added.

Final electricity prices for consumers will also decline thanks to the transfer of all fees for supported energy sources (POZE) to the state, approved by the government in December. Jan Palaščák of the Amper Group noted that the measure would burden the state budget. "However, it will undoubtedly contribute to the greater competitiveness of Czech manufacturing companies," he said. Households and businesses should save hundreds of crowns per megawatt-hour on POZE charges.

Palaščák also recalled that the future of some domestic coal-fired assets will be decided in 2026, while the planned transition from coal to gas should also move forward. He also noted that 2026 may be crucial for the future of energy group ČEZ, which the current government wants to bring fully under state ownership. "We will see whether the pre-election statements were meant seriously at all. Alternatively, a proposal to split the group could emerge, for example through the privatisation of ČEZ Distribuce and ČEZ ESCO," he added.

Part of the energy community expects the rise of energy flexibility next year. For example, the role of independent aggregator should be introduced. "This could open the market to new players," said Tomáš Krejčí, Greenbuddies' director of flexibility aggregation. He also expects the planned expansion of battery storage to be implemented on a larger scale. "Dozens to hundreds of megawatts of capacity could be connected and put into operation," Krejčí added.

According to Ruben Marada of Electree, next year will show whether Czechia can manage the transition to decentralised energy based on batteries, demand-side management and smart grid operation. "Investment in the transmission and distribution grid will be crucial," Marada added.