New MPO and OTE report shows possible development of Czech energy sector through 2050

According to a forecast by the Czech electricity and gas market operator, the Czech energy sector can expect growth in electricity consumption in the coming years, which may be further accelerated by greater use of electric vehicles. Although natural gas consumption has declined in recent years, it could find greater use in heating and transport.

An outlook on the direction the Czech energy sector could take over the next three decades is provided by the so-called Expected long-term balance between electricity and gas supply and demand, which the market operator, OTE, prepares annually in cooperation with the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MPO) under the Czech State Energy Policy.

In the electricity sector, the report presents three different future development scenarios – the policy, fossil fuel and low-carbon scenarios. These are supplemented by a zero scenario, describing a situation in which no new investments are made in developing the generation base.

All grid development scenarios would require substantial investment, particularly in nuclear power, photovoltaic sources and energy storage. The most likely option appears to be the policy scenario, based on the updated State Energy Policy. This scenario is characterised in particular by further development of nuclear energy, lifting the mining limits at the Bílina mine and greater use of renewable sources, supplemented by gas-fired generation.

All scenarios also envisage a significant increase in electricity consumption, which could rise by as much as one-third from current levels over the next 30 years if electric vehicles see more widespread use.

By contrast, the cross-border electricity trade balance should decline significantly. The Czech energy sector is currently clearly export-oriented, with annual balance values – the difference between electricity exports and imports – standing at around 17 TWh (more than one-fifth of net electricity generation in Czechia).

Regarding natural gas use, the report likewise envisages three main energy sector development scenarios. In all cases, natural gas consumption should grow, primarily owing to greater use of gas in transport (CNG).

Lead photo author: Andrew Imanaka