Many EU countries will miss target for cross-border transmission capacity development

A number of EU member states are likely to miss the 2030 target for cross-border transmission capacity. Insufficient investment in so-called interconnectors and persistent permitting obstacles threaten the integration of the European electricity market. This will lead to greater price differences between regions and make it harder to integrate renewable energy sources.

The European Union has set a target for member states to achieve cross-border transmission capacity equivalent to at least 15% of their installed generation capacity by 2030. Experts say, however, that a number of countries are significantly behind schedule. Most large member states already missed the previous 2020 target and remain far from the current commitment.

Data from last year show that eight EU countries had cross-border transmission capacity below 10% of installed capacity. Independent estimates suggest that as many as eleven member states may fail to reach the 15% threshold even by 2030.

Regions most at risk

Regions with limited connections to the rest of the European grid are considered particularly at risk. The Iberian Peninsula is a typical example, with Spain’s interconnection capacity standing at only around 3.6% of installed capacity. The situation is similar in Ireland, says Leonhard Gandhi, an energy market expert at Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute.

Larger economies also face problems. France, Italy, Greece, Poland and the Netherlands are grappling with slow approval processes for new power lines and bottlenecks within their own transmission systems. Because the required cross-border capacity is calculated based on the installed capacity of generation sources, growth in installed solar power capacity is making it harder for Germany, Spain, Hungary and Greece to meet the target.

Widening price differences and growing risks

According to the European regulator ACER, insufficient transmission capacity in Europe contributes to price differences and evening peaks across the continent. Data published by ACER last September highlighted delays in meeting the EU target of making at least 70% of cross-border transmission capacity available for trading. In 2024, an average of only 54% of cross-border transmission capacity was available for trading, which ACER says resulted in losses of hundreds of millions of euros due to the less efficient functioning of the electricity market.

According to Neil Makaroff, director of the Brussels-based think tank Strategic Perspectives, the April 2025 blackout on the Iberian Peninsula underscored the vulnerability of the region’s energy system due to a lack of interconnectors. The peninsula was unable to use European balancing services because of its limited connection to France.