COP 28 in Dubai: Global review of the Paris Agreement and much more

The end of 2023, the hottest year on record, will be marked by the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (hereafter COP 28). The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host this year's meeting of representatives from nearly 200 countries in Dubai. The conference itself will begin on 30 November and run until 12 December. As every year, we can expect authoritative outcomes aimed at helping the parties involved mitigate climate change.

COP 28 comes halfway through the journey since what was arguably the most significant climate conference of recent times: the Paris conference and its 2015 goals. Under the agreement, countries committed, among other things, to cutting emissions by 50% by 2030 and keeping the rise in global temperatures below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, or, ideally, limiting the increase to 1.5° C.

COP 28 marks the culmination of the first global review of progress towards these goals, known as the “global stocktake”. Attention is also expected to focus on financing for developing countries (particularly resolving the issue of the Loss and Damage Fund), the question of gradually phasing out fossil fuels, and the future of hydrocarbons. This article aims to briefly introduce some of the main issues, especially those related to the energy sector.

“Global stocktake (GST)”

The GST is a process designed to review the criteria of the Paris Agreement, in which it is also legally enshrined. It examines the progress made towards reducing emissions and, therefore, achieving the climate goal. Last but not least, the GST assesses and evaluates how the parties are working towards the goals, including through capacity-building, financing and technology.

The process began in 2021, data collection continued the following year, and this year’s conference will bring these efforts to a close. The final report from COP 28 will then usher in a new cycle, involving a two-year process to address the shortcomings identified through so-called nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

However, regardless of the conference’s final statement, it is already clear that the world is far from meeting its commitments. More information is available in the Emissions Gap Report.

The end of fossil fuels?

Emissions reductions must be driven by the oil and gas industry—or, more precisely, they will not be possible without its significant contribution. A complete phase-out of fossil fuels is probably not to be expected, but these companies must back up their actions with a clear climate strategy and results, not just vague promises.

These phrases are repeated time and again, but according to the IEA, less than half of global production is covered by announced plans to reduce emissions from operations. COP 28 must therefore push for concrete commitments to transform the entire industry, which has the technology and financial resources to do so.

In contrast, it is worth mentioning the leaked documents obtained by independent journalists at the Centre for Climate Reporting, working with the BBC. According to their claims, the UAE allegedly planned to use its role as COP 28 host to secure oil and gas deals. The UAE is one of the world's largest producers of oil and natural gas. Another paradox is this year's conference president, Sultan Al Jaber, who is also the chief executive of oil company ADNOC.

The future of hydrocarbons

The conference’s conclusions are much more likely to refer to the “future of hydrocarbons” than to a “fossil phase-out”. Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technology is expected to be on the agenda.

Many stakeholders consider it a key component of the energy transition, while others see it merely as a justification for continued fossil fuel use. While the European Union has a strategic vision for this technology, non-profit organisations such as Greenpeace call it a scam and part of lobbying efforts. There is no better platform for discussion than a United Nations gathering.

Will COP 28 be more successful than last year's conference in Egypt

To conclude, here are just a few questions for the floor:

• What form will the final communiqué take, given that all 197 participating parties must agree on it unanimously?
• Will this year's outcome offer a more successful and decisive solution than last year's conference in Egypt, which has been criticised for its ineffectiveness?
• What is the true relationship between the fossil fuel lobby and the desired goals?
• What impact will current events around the world have? In other words, will global players be able to separate their geopolitical ambitions from global climate needs?

The world will learn the first answers after the conference ends; other questions, especially those of a medium- and long-term nature, will take time to answer.