Auditors: REPowerEU helped reduce dependence on Russia, but investment in the transition falls short

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian fossil fuels, particularly oil. However, according to new analyses, a complete break from Russian gas is far from complete. In its report, the European Court of Auditors also warns that investment mobilised under REPowerEU falls short of the energy transition's needs and may not be enough to meet Europe's more ambitious targets for renewables, energy savings and infrastructure.

Within just a few years, the European Union has achieved what was still considered difficult to imagine in 2021. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it significantly reduced its dependence on imports of Russian oil and natural gas and managed to diversify its energy supplies. This was precisely the purpose of the REPowerEU plan, which the European Commission presented in May 2022 in response to the energy crisis.

However, according to a new audit by the European Court of Auditors, success in energy security does not automatically mean success for the entire energy transition. Auditors warn that investment mobilised through REPowerEU and its instruments falls short of what will be needed to meet European climate and energy targets by 2030.

Dependence on Russia has fallen, but the problem has not disappeared

When the European Commission presented the REPowerEU plan in 2022, it was responding to a situation in which the European Union imported around 45 % of its natural gas and 27 % of its oil from Russia. The aim was not only to manage the immediate energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but also to reduce the European energy sector's strategic dependence on Russian fossil fuels in the long term.

According to the European Court of Auditors, significant progress has been made. The EU has substantially reduced its dependence on Russian fossil fuels and diversified its energy supply sources. At the same time, however, auditors warn that some challenges persist and the EU's energy security has not yet been definitively resolved.

This is also confirmed by a new ACER report (Report on Russian gas import contracts and diversification - 2026). According to it, Russian gas still accounts for around 12 % of European gas demand. It continues to flow into the European Union both through long-term LNG contracts and via remaining pipeline routes. ACER also warns that fully eliminating this dependence will require further supplier diversification, infrastructure development and the removal of persistent constraints in the European gas market.

The next step is to completely end Russian gas imports into the European Union from 2028. New contracts for Russian gas imports are to be banned from 2026, while existing contracts will be phased out. For LNG, the ban will be enforced through origin checks before entry into the EU, a ban on re-exports via third countries, and an obligation on companies to prove the gas's origin. Terminals will also be unable to provide long-term services to Russian entities. The LNG sector in particular shows that breaking away from Russia will not be easy.

In this context, the European Court of Auditors' findings become even more significant. If Europe is to replace the remaining Russian supplies while also meeting its climate targets, it will have to complete major investments in renewable energy, energy grids and cross-border interconnections. Yet this is precisely where the current implementation of REPowerEU falls short of its original ambitions, according to the auditors.

The energy transition needs more investment

REPowerEU was not intended solely as a crisis plan to replace Russian commodities. It was also meant to accelerate the development of renewable energy, support energy savings and expand cross-border energy infrastructure.

In 2022, the European Commission estimated that around €300 billion in additional investment beyond the original Fit for 55 package would be needed by 2030 to meet the more ambitious climate and energy targets. According to the auditors, however, investment mobilised through REPowerEU so far falls significantly short of this need.

“Four years after its launch, REPowerEU has stalled, despite hundreds of billions of euros being available,” said European Court of Auditors member Mihails Kozlovs when presenting the report. According to the auditors, this raises the question of whether investment needs were initially overestimated, or whether member states and European institutions failed to translate ambitious targets into specific projects and investments.

Criticism is directed primarily at the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), whose REPowerEU chapters cannot be regarded as the main driver for achieving the plan's overall targets, according to the report. Moreover, a number of RRF-funded measures face delays, and their actual impact is difficult to assess due to insufficient data and a weak evaluation system.

In Czechia, the Recovery and Resilience Facility is implemented through the National Recovery Plan, a significant part of which supports energy security, renewable energy and energy savings.

Weak monitoring and insufficient interconnections

The report also highlights problems in the management of REPowerEU itself. According to the auditors, the key tools used by the European Commission to track progress do not provide a sufficient basis for effective management and evaluation of the plan.

The shortcomings concern both member states' updated national energy and climate plans and the REPowerEU chapters incorporated into national recovery plans.

The auditors also describe the limited emphasis on cross-border interconnections as a missed opportunity. In their view, interconnectors could contribute to the more efficient functioning of the single European electricity market, strengthen energy security and improve the integration of renewables across member states.

Renewable energy also receives a similarly critical assessment. Measures with clearly defined and measurable targets contribute only to a limited extent to increasing generation capacity, according to the auditors, with most of the identified contribution coming from solar power.

A crisis instrument is not enough for the long-term transition

The audit's main conclusion is not that REPowerEU has failed. On the contrary, the European Court of Auditors confirms that the European Union has significantly strengthened its energy security since 2022 and managed to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

At the same time, however, it warns that building a new energy system is substantially more complex than replacing one supplier with another. If the European Union wants to meet its targets for decarbonisation, renewable energy and energy infrastructure, it will need more investment, better coordination and a more convincing system for monitoring results, according to the auditors.

In other words, REPowerEU helped manage the acute energy crisis. The question now is whether the current pace of investment and project implementation will be enough for the next phase of Europe's energy transition.