European Commission to propose a 90% emissions cut by 2040, but rules will be more flexible

The European Commission will require countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040. But it will offer "flexibility" to make the target politically acceptable. The Commission will present the target in the first half of June.

After taking office last year, Ribera, von der Leyen and EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra pledged to set a 2040 milestone for the bloc's emissions at 90% below 1990 levels, in line with recommendations from the EU's scientific advisers.

However, lawmakers and governments in EU member states began raising objections, prompting the Commission to postpone its proposal in March. Hoekstra then began exploring "flexible options" for how countries could meet the target — measures that would soften it while preserving its headline figure.

Carbon credits

Officials said in March that these options included using international carbon credits, allowing countries to pay for emissions-reduction measures abroad and count them towards their domestic target. This would mark a significant departure from the bloc's current approach, as both its existing 2030 targets and its 2050 targets must be met within the EU's borders.

Teresa Ribera has now confirmed to Politico that Brussels is indeed considering carbon credits. "There will be a discussion about these flexible options, including international carbon markets," she said in an interview.

She stressed, however, that the Commission cannot allow carbon credits or other flexible options to result in "a major weakening of our domestic efforts for 2040". Ribera said the message must not be that the EU is doing "nothing".

"On track"

The findings on the EU's progress towards its 2030 climate target could bolster Ribera's efforts.

An analysis of 24 national climate plans — Belgium, Estonia and Poland have yet to submit theirs — showed that the European Union is on track to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 54 percent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. That 54 percent is just below the climate target of 55 percent.

The 2040 proposal is also expected to clarify the bloc's 2035 target, which is not binding under EU law but is required under the Paris climate agreement. The EU was among many signatories that missed the February deadline to submit their 2035 plans to the UN. The final deadline is in September.

Domestic efforts come first

"We have supported the idea that international credits can help both with access to finance and with development," said Ribera, who was an experienced Spanish climate negotiator before joining the Commission.

But this idea has always been linked to "another strong conviction that every country should make a domestic effort according to its own capabilities," she added, stressing that the EU is capable of achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

Despite all the opposition to the 2040 targets, Ribera said she feels that EU governments and the European Parliament understand the importance of achieving an ambitious target.