Germany can get through winter with gas, but frost could cause problems, INES says

Berlin, 14 December (ČTK) – Germany is unlikely to face problems with its gas supply this winter. Difficulties could arise only in extreme frosts, which Germany has not experienced for years. Sebastian Heinermann, head of the German association of gas and hydrogen storage operators INES, said this at a press conference today.

„Our analyses show a gas shortfall only at extremely low temperatures, which Germany has not experienced for years,“ Heinermann said.

„Despite the recent frosts, which brought a sharp increase in gas consumption, we expect to get through this winter well,“ he noted.

Germany had completely filled its gas storage facilities by early November, meeting the requirements of the Energy Security Act. The law requires storage facilities to be 95 percent full by 1 November. Germany had already reached that level by the end of September and exceeded 100 percent by November. This is possible because the capacity secured is lower than the facilities’ actual technical capacity.

Germany began drawing on its gas reserves on 21 November and had 96 percent of its storage capacity filled at the beginning of December. According to INES, that was an above-average level. The subsequent frosts increased gas consumption in Germany, and storage facilities are now 91.6 percent full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), the European association of gas infrastructure operators. However, according to INES, the first cold spell has not worsened Germany’s outlook for getting through the winter.

Prolonged extreme frosts could pose a problem, however, and Germany could face a gas shortage in February and March. At such low temperatures, Germany would also have difficulty keeping gas storage levels at least 40 percent full on 1 February, as required by law. In truly extreme temperatures, storage levels could fall below ten percent by that date.

The low-temperature scenario is based on conditions in 2010, when Europe experienced an exceptionally cold winter. INES also presented forecasts for so-called normal temperatures based on 2016 and an above-average winter based on 2020. Neither of these model scenarios poses any supply problems for Germany, and the country would also retain large gas reserves into spring.

In the event of a warm winter, Germany’s storage levels would reach their lowest point at the end of January, when facilities would be 71 percent full. With average temperatures, reserves would fall to 35 percent by the end of March, after which INES again expects gas storage levels to rise quickly.

INES currently has 15 members, which operate more than 90 percent of Germany’s gas storage capacity and around 25 percent of storage capacity in the European Union.