ICIS: Germany to triple electricity imports this year

While Germany was one of Europe’s largest electricity exporters just a few years ago, the tide is gradually turning. Last year, its cross-border electricity trade balance even fell into negative territory for the first time in 20 years. One of the key factors was the shutdown of the last three nuclear units, which still generated over 30 TWh in 2022. According to ICIS, Germany’s net imports are expected to rise further this year, potentially making the country the second-largest importer.

As the EU’s largest electricity producer and consumer, Germany is a major player in the European market. Apart from risks related to fuel prices, including coal and gas, and emissions allowances, electricity prices in Europe are most affected by these factors. Cross-border trade is also important, particularly because of price differences between countries.

According to an ICIS report cited by Montel, Germany recorded net imports of nearly 12 TWh last year. To put this in perspective, that volume represents approximately one-fifth of the Czech Republic’s net electricity consumption last year. ICIS analysts say German electricity imports could rise significantly further this year.

"One of the biggest trends to watch in 2024 is the growing level of net imports into Germany. In the decade up to 2022, Germany was Europe’s second-largest net electricity exporter, behind only France. In 2023, however, the country became a net importer as nuclear power plants were gradually phased out and output from hard coal and lignite-fired plants declined," ICIS analysts say in their report.

ICIS analysts also say their forecasts point to a further rise in net imports this year. Germany is expected to take around 10 GW of installed coal-fired capacity off the market. Compared with nearly 12 TWh last year, imports could reach 38 TWh this year, roughly three times as much. This would make Germany the second-largest net importer, behind Italy, which has traditionally had a large deficit.

"This means Germany would move from being Europe’s second-largest net electricity exporter to its second-largest net importer in just two years," the analysts continue.