IEA: Global demand for coal, oil and gas to peak by 2030

Global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030. More electric cars will be on the roads, and China's economy will grow more slowly while becoming more focused on cleaner energy. This also calls into question the case for increasing investment in fossil fuel production. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said this today in its report on the global energy outlook.

The report contrasts with the view of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). They expect demand to continue growing long after 2030 and are calling for new investment in the oil sector worth trillions of dollars.

The IEA said its scenario is based on current government policies. For the first time, these point to demand for oil, natural gas and coal peaking this decade, the agency said.

„The transition to clean energy is continuing around the world and is unstoppable. The question is not ‚whether‘ but ‚how soon‘ – and the sooner, the better for all of us,“ said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

„Governments, companies and investors need to support the transition to clean energy rather than hinder it.

The agency also said, however, that under current conditions, demand for fossil fuels will remain too high to meet the goal of the so-called Paris Agreement: limiting the rise in the average global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with the pre-industrial period.

By 2030, there will be almost ten times as many electric cars on the world's roads as there are now, according to the IEA's estimates. In the United States, electric cars will account for half of new car registrations by 2030. Last year, they accounted for just 12 percent. The US Inflation Reduction Act will be a major factor behind this.

China's role as a major source of energy demand growth is changing. While China accounted for almost two-thirds of global oil consumption growth over the past decade, its economic growth is slowing and the country is becoming a clean energy powerhouse, the IEA noted. More than half of all electric cars sold worldwide last year were sold in China.

According to the agency, the key to a proper energy transition is increasing investment in clean energy, not fossil fuels. „The end of the era of fossil fuel growth does not mean the end of investment in fossil fuels, but it undermines the case for any increase in spending,“ the IEA said.

An OPEC report earlier this month said calls to stop investment in oil projects were misguided and could cause chaos in the economy and the energy sector.